A series of opinion polls conducted since then Joe Biden gave up his presidential campaign last Sunday, shows Vice President Kamala Harris is closing the gap Donald Trump but still slightly behind in a neck-and-neck race.
While Harris, now the presumptive Democratic nominee, often still trails narrowly, the fact that she has gained ground on her Republican opponent suggests her rise to the top of the ticket has reset the presidential race, pollsters say, especially after weeks of declining Democratic polling under Biden.
Recent surveys in the swing states show Trump leading by a wide margin in the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia, with a margin of error of 47%. Another survey showed the two states in Wisconsin tied at 47%.
Related: Survey shows the vast majority of black voters trust Harris and distrust Trump
National polls have also reported similarly narrow differences: Trump held a one-point lead among likely voters, 48 to 47, according to a New York Times/Siena poll released Thursday. That’s a stark contrast to the Republican nominee’s six-point lead over Biden in the same poll in early July.
Trump holds a two-point lead in a Quinnipiac University poll that began before Biden withdrew, a one-point lead in a Marist College poll and a three-point lead in a CNN/SSRS poll conducted over two days.
Another Ipsos/Reuters poll showed Harris with a two percentage point lead, 44% to 42%, while a You Gov/Yahoo poll showed them both leading at 46%.
While she’s still behind, the trend represents momentum for Harris, who has launched her campaign on a wave of enthusiasm this week after earning endorsements from most leading Democratic figures, including Biden, Bill and Hillary Clinton, and Nancy Pelosi, the former House speaker. She’s also believed to be close to securing the support of Barack Obama.
A collection of polls compiled by Hill and Decision Desk HQ — and based on 80 polls — gives Trump a score of 47.8% to Harris’s 45.7%, a difference that again falls within the margin of error that could effectively mean the two are tied.
That’s a smaller gap than the 3.3 points in Trump’s favor over Biden when using the same aggregation methods.
Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said the move toward Harris — while small — suggests the race has been significantly reset by Biden’s withdrawal. But much more data is likely needed in the coming weeks before a more definitive picture emerges.
“Because of the intense polarization in the American electorate, you should never expect much movement from an event because so many people are so entrenched in their Democratic or Republican trenches that nothing will move them. So you’re always fighting to convince a very small portion of the electorate,” he said.
“Therefore, the fact that the numbers have moved a few points suggests that there has been a reset in this election, although it doesn’t tell us exactly what the direction is. It just tells us that we are looking at a new election right now.”
Still, the improved Democratic results appear to justify pressure on Biden to withdraw from the party line after his disastrous debate performance last month, which led to a loss of confidence in his candidacy and a downward trend in his already stagnant poll numbers.
“There’s been no question in the last month that the trajectory in a Biden-Trump race was in Trump’s favor,” Murray said. “Whether the Democrats made the right call or not, we won’t know until November, but it was certainly the right call at the time because it didn’t look like Biden was going to be able to turn this around.
“The polls tell me … that voters are willing to take a fresh look at this campaign now that Harris is on top.”
The clearest evidence of this is the surge in support among young voters after the sudden turnaround in the Democratic campaign.
An Axios/Generation Lab poll of voters aged 18 to 34 conducted this week found Harris ahead of Trump by 20 points, 60% to 40. That was a quantum leap from Biden’s narrow 6% lead. About 45% of the group said they had a favorable opinion of Harris, compared with 33% who said the same of Biden – and 34% who had a favorable opinion of Trump.
Millennials and Gen Z voters were a key part of Biden’s 2020 victory over Trump, turning out in droves. There are indications that Harris—with her focus on threats to women’s abortion rights and emphasis on upholding freedoms more generally—is planning to target younger voters.
Among the swing states, Trump’s biggest lead is Arizona, where he holds a five-point lead (49-44) over Harris, according to polls conducted by Emerson College Polling and The Hill. Arizona, where the flow of migrants across the border with Mexico is a major election issue, is home to Mark Kelly, the state’s popular Democratic U.S. senator, who is one of several figures in the running to be Harris’ running mate.
The same poll shows Trump ahead of Harris by 46 to 45 points in Michigan, and by 48 to 46 points in both Pennsylvania and Georgia — smaller margins than he generally held over Biden in the weeks following the June 27 debate.
Trends in swing-state polls could play a decisive role in Harris’s choice of a running mate in the coming weeks, especially given that two candidates in the race are Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Biden won both states in 2020, along with Georgia and Arizona.
“The first rule of choosing a running mate is to do no harm, because there is little benefit to you from a running mate, but a lot of harm can be done,” Murray said, suggesting that Trump’s choice of J.D. Vance as his vice presidential nominee could fall into this category, given the notoriety generated by his hardline anti-abortion views and past disparaging comments about childless women.
“Kamala Harris should probably look at someone who brings with him a key swing state.”
