Kentucky Derby: Fierceness’ chances continue to shrink ahead of the 150th race

Fierceness has become an even bigger favorite heading into Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.

The horse is now 9-5 to win the 150th running of the race. If he wins, Fierceness would be the first favorite to win the Kentucky Derby since 2018. Earlier this week, Fierceness had official odds of 3-1.

The Todd Pletcher-trained horse finished first and third in his two starts this season and won two of three starts in 2023. Fierceness won the Florida Derby in March by 13.5 lengths after retiring down the stretch. Fierceness led from wire to wire and had a 1.5 length lead at the three-quarter pole.

Sierra Leone remains the number 2 favorite at 6-1. While Fierceness’s opportunities have shrunk, Sierra Leone’s have grown. The horse was 3-1 earlier this week. Sierra Leone has won both of his starts this year and has three firsts and a second in four career starts. Sierra Leone starts from the second post position, while Fierceness starts from 17th spot.

Overall, only four horses have better odds than 15-1. Forever Young is 8-1 and Catching Freedom is 9-1. Forever Young, a horse from Japan, has never lost in his career with five wins in five starts. Catching Freedom has three wins and a third-place finish in five career starts.

If you’re looking for a huge potential payout that you’re unlikely to cash in, Society Man and Mugatu are the two biggest long shots entering the race. Both horses start all the way on the outside. Society Man holds the No. 20 post and is 73-1, while Mugatu is 87-1. Mugatu has made many starts in his career and cannot get many wins from them. In twelve career starts, Mugatu has one win, a second and three thirds with a career earnings of just over $80,000. Therefore, this is the longest shot in the field.

Kentucky Derby Odds

• Savagery (post 17): 9-5

• Sierra Leone (2): 6-1

• Forever Young (11): 8-1

• Capturing Freedom (4): 9-1

• Dornoch (1): 15-1

• Honor Marie (7): 16-1

• Just a touch (8): 17-1

• Mystik Dan (3): 27-1

• Resilience (19): 28-1

• West Saratoga (13): 32-1

• Plain Steel (6): 34-1

• Domestic Product (15): 38-1

• Catalytic (5): 42-1

• Stronghold (18): 43-1

• Rail Phantom (12): 52-1

• Endless (14): 52-1

• TO Password (10): 61-1

• Epic Ride (21): 63-1

• Big Mo The First (16): 64-1

• Societyman (20): 73-1

• Mugatu (22): 87-1