With a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump looming, the stakes are high. From the future of reproductive rights to the chances for meaningful action on climate change, from the strength of US support for Ukraine in its war with Russia, and Israel in its war with Hamas, to the fate of American democracy itself: existential issues are clearly present. forward.
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Here’s a look at why.
“It’s the economy, stupid.” Democratic strategist James Carville said this in 1992 as an advisor to Bill Clinton. Most Americans felt that stewardship of the economy needed to change: Clinton defeated George HW Bush.
Under Biden, the post-Covid recovery remains on track. Unemployment is low and stocks are at record highs. That should bode well, but the key question is whether they are Americans think Biden’s economy is strong, or thinks it works for them, or thinks Trump was a safer pair of hands, forgetting about the chaos of Covid. According to polls, many prefer Trump. Concerns about the cost of living dominate. Inflation remains a concern. According to Biden, Republican threats to Social Security and Medicare could offset such concerns. For Trump, whose base is aging, such threats must be downplayed — even if they are present in Republicans’ own transition planning.
House Republicans have impeached Alejandro Mayorkas, Biden’s Secretary of Homeland Security. The Senate overturned that, but at Trump’s direction, Republicans rejected a bipartisan border and immigration deal. One day in February, Biden and Trump both headed to the southern border. Biden highlighted Republican obstruction but called on Trump to work with him, aiming to show voters which party wants to work on the issue. Since then, Trump has focused on the charges against Biden and claims of border chaos fueled by sinister forces. Expect such contrasts on the loop.
Equivalence
Ron DeSantis made attacks on LGBTQ+ rights a hallmark of his effort to “Make America Florida.” The governor’s failed campaign is indicative of how well that went, but Republican efforts to demonize the so-called “woke” ideology should not be discounted. States have introduced anti-trans legislation, book bans and restrictions on LGBTQ+ issues in education. The U.S. Supreme Court intervened by ending race-based affirmative action in college admissions.
The fight over immigration and the Republicans’ usual focus on crime show that racial struggles will play their usual role, especially as Trump uses extremist “blood and soil” rhetoric. On the Democratic side, there is a troubling sign: Black and Hispanic support is less secure than it used to be.
Democrats are clear: They will focus on Republican attacks on abortion rights, from the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson ruling that struck down Roe v. Wade, to the mifepristone case, draconian bans and candidate support for such measures.
It makes tactical sense: The threat to women’s reproductive rights is a rare issue on which Democrats vote very strongly, fueling electoral victories in conservative states. This year’s IVF ruling in Alabama, which found that embryos should be legally treated like humans, once again demonstrated the power of such tactics: Republicans from Trump onwards tried to deny that they wanted to end the treatment used by millions people was used.
Trump must balance bragging about ending Roe by appointing three justices who voted to take down the country and trying to avoid blame for attacks on reproductive rights, even as his supporters call for and pass stricter abortion bans also implement. Expect Biden and the Democrats to strike and continue to strike.
Foreign policy
For Biden, the war between Israel and Gaza presents a diabolical proposition: how to appease or merely mollify both the Israel lobby and large parts of his own party, especially the left and the youth, who are more sympathetic to the Palestinians.
The ongoing and ongoing protests on campus against the Israeli bombing of Gaza demonstrate the danger of becoming disconnected from the basics. This also applies to protest votes against Biden in the Democratic primaries. Republicans have no such concerns: they are simply pro-Israel.
Elsewhere, Biden continues to lead a global coalition in support of Ukraine in its fight against Russia, scoring a victory at home in April when Republican Speaker of the US House of Representatives Mike Johnson finally oversaw the passage of a new relief bill, despite fierce opposition from his party’s right. Add to that the lasting effects of the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan (rushed by Trump, clumsy by Biden), questions about what happens if China attacks Taiwan, and the threat Trump poses to NATO, and heavy fire on foreign policy is guaranteed .
Democracy
Biden is keen to emphasize the threat to democracy at home. After all, Trump refused to accept the outcome of the 2020 election, incited the deadly attack on Congress on January 6, 2021, is linked to plans to abolish the federal government in a second term and even says he is a ‘dictator’ want to be. on day one.
Trump maintains the lie that his 2020 defeat was the result of election fraud even as his various criminal cases continue, 14 of 88 charges alleging election subversion. The remaining 74 charges concern paying hush money (34, now on trial in New York) and keeping secret information (40, slowly in Florida).
It should be easy to portray a would-be criminal who has already been indicted 88 times as a threat to the constitutional order, especially given Trump’s apparent need to win power as a way to avoid prison time. Accordingly, the issue was profitable for Biden at the polls. But some doubt its potential. David Axelrod, a close ally of Barack Obama, told the New Yorker: “I’m pretty sure in Scranton [Pennsylvania, Biden’s home town] they don’t sit around their dinner table every night talking about democracy.”
From wildfires to hurricanes and catastrophic flooding, it’s clear that climate change is real. Polls show this: 70% of Americans – remarkably including 50% of Republicans – want meaningful action. But that is not reflected in the Republican campaigns. Trump says he does not believe human activities contribute to climate change, nor that climate change worsens extreme weather events, and is opposed to efforts to boost clean energy. Biden’s climate record may be criticized by campaigners, but his record positions him firmly and clearly against such dangerous views.
