After a six-game neck-and-neck series, the Knicks advanced past the Philadelphia 76ers to advance to the second round of the playoffs for the second year in a row. Their opponent in pursuit of the Conference Finals is the Indiana Pacers, fresh off a six-game win over the starless Milwaukee Bucks Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Unlike Philly, this will be more of a clash of styles, as New York prefers to play at a slower pace, while Indiana wants to hold track and field meets. The good news for the Knicks is that they have less star power and are facing two All-Stars instead of one and a reigning MVP.
The two teams met twice following their midseason upset, a 1-1 split at Madison Square Garden that saw no OG Anunoby or Mitchell Robinson. Without much reliance on their regular season games, the projection of this series will be ambiguous, but let’s dive in.
Guard Jalen Brunson
As with any Knicks game, stopping or slowing down Brunson will be a top priority for opponents. Like Philly, expect Indy – flush with big guards and wings – to throw their bigger defenders at him.
Aaron Nesmith Standing at 6-foot-1 and 215 pounds with a seven-foot wingspan will likely open on Brunson. Indy’s 6-foot-1 backcourt of Tyrese Haliburton And Andreas Nembhard will also get their chances, as well as Knick killer and general annoyance on the field TJ McConnell.
Brunson hasn’t had much trouble scoring with these guys in the regular season. He scored 28 points on 22 shots in the first game, his worst of the season, followed by efficient performances of 40 and 39 points.
Under Nesmith’s tutelage, Brunson scored 29 points on 12-of-18 shooting in less than 10 minutes, but struggled from the field against Haliburton and Nembhard, who also have size advantages but can better match Brunson’s speed.
The individual matchups are not as important as the team plans. Indiana will likely try to get into the shadows Jos Hart to send Brunson an extra defenseman, just like Philadelphia did, and New York will need Hart to make plays and shots like he did in the previous series.
In theory, the Pacers are more switchable against Brunson and would continually isolate with him Pascal Siakam or Myles Turner. Even if that works, Brunson will turn to his target basketball and get the matchup he prefers, and both teams will have to adjust from there.
Styles create fights
The identities of these two teams are quite entrenched at this point, and since both fall on opposite ends of the basketball spectrum, whoever plays the game will likely emerge victorious.
New York is a slow, grind-you-down, beat-you-with-metal bats team that defends well and compensates for their offensive limitations by winning possession through offensive rebounds and low turnovers. Indiana constantly pushes the pace and wants to pick you out of space and kill you offensively, with little resistance on the other end.
Both have built-in benefits. The Pacers finished the regular season ranked 24th in defensive rating, 26th in defensive rebound percentage and 19th in opponent turnover rate, all suggesting that if the Knicks’ defense holds up, they should have plenty of offense find an easy way to win.
On the other hand, New York misses a lot of shots, which will lead to a lot of transition opportunities for Indiana. The Knicks’ defense may also struggle against five-out teams like the Pacers, who boast a starting frontcourt that shoots 36.4 percent from three.
This series could very well come down to these simple things that both teams have done all season but need to solidify this round. Can the Knicks keep their turnovers down and abuse the Pacers on the boards, or will Indiana punish them for every missed shot and overwhelm them with their youth and athleticism?
Slow down the pace(s).
Indiana finished with the second-best offense of the season and has kept that pace going into the postseason, albeit against a shaky Bucks defense. The Knicks will have more weapons to throw at them, but there are still a lot of unknowns.
First, how do the Knicks fit together? Anunoby is their Swiss army knife that everyone was protected from Tyrese Maxey Unpleasant Joel Embid in the last series, and we’ll probably see him deployed in the same way this time around.
His natural slot is Siakam, who paced Milwaukee with 36 and 37 points in Games 1 and 2. He’s had plenty of time to guard him during Toronto Raptors practices, but no time during NBA action yet, so this will be an interesting one. head to head to watch.
That leaves Isaiah Hartenstein he guards Turner, who will be stationed behind the three-point arc to draw out New York’s rim protection. The Knicks will likely live with this until it burns them, at which point they have a few options.
They could try to hide Hartenstein on Nesmith or another non-shooting perimeter threat, forcing Turner to post up Hart to gain an advantage. They can also put Hartenstein on Siakam and Anunoby on Turner so that the rim is protected and OG can easily help and recover with his speed.
It will likely be a defense by committee against Haliburton, whose offensive threat comes largely from his passing ability. We could see Anunoby on him if he shakes too loose, perhaps combining with a center on Siakam to close out that pet play.
Just like in the first round, don’t expect the Knicks to be consistent in their approach. Tom Thibodeau made Philly’s stars uncomfortable in the series’ biggest moments with defensive adjustments and will look to do the same here.
One thing working in the Knicks’ favor is that Indy isn’t shooting. Only Nembhard and Turner had strong performances in the final round, so if they can corral the paint and force the ball into the hands of poor shooters, they could have the edge there.
Prediction
No postseason foe should be overlooked or dismissed, but the Knicks have the pieces to go to war with almost a legitimate contender and MVP-level player. The Pacers should pale in comparison.
Kinks in 5.
