(KXAN) – As the conflict in Rafah continues, RANE senior Middle East analyst Ryan Bohl explains when it could end and what happens next.
“The combat operations now underway at Rafah, which are relatively small compared to what we saw in the earlier phase of the war, appear likely to continue for a few more weeks, possibly a few more months. Bohl said.
That doesn’t necessarily mean the fighting will stop, he said.
“Actors like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran still have an incentive to launch attacks on Israel in solidarity with this uprising in Gaza. So we are not going back to the status quo before October 7. But for the Israelis we are shifting the tension towards the north, towards Lebanon.”
Bohl said there is increasing pressure from senior Israeli officials on Benjamin Netanyahu to come up with a public strategy for managing Gaza once operations in Rafah end, while others are demanding a strategy for Lebanon.
“And that is the moment when we have to see whether or not there can be a diplomatic breakthrough,” Bohl said.
“That allows for de-escalation in the north or as Israel builds up forces liberated from the fighting in Gaza on the northern border to prepare for a full-scale invasion of Lebanon.”
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