The NFL Draft world appears to have turned on its axis again, at least when it comes to the second overall pick.
There was some drama in the gambling world at the end of last week. The odds of LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels going No. 2 overall to the Washington Commanders took a sudden and dramatic turn. His odds at BetMGM went from -400 – betting $400 to win $100, and 80% implied odds to win – to -125. North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye went the other way, from +220 to +100.
It seemed like the gambling market might have made a new choice, which has happened more than a few times in recent years. But on Tuesday the market changed again. Daniels is again a heavy favorite to finish No. 2 overall.
That follows reporting from Yahoo Sports’ Charles Robinson, who wrote Tuesday that, barring last-minute input from Commanders owner Josh Harris, “there is a firm belief around the league that Daniels is second overall in the problems arose.” The gambling market reflected that.
The odds are once again in favor of Jayden Daniels at number 2
The odds returned to Daniels. On Monday, Daniels was -175 for the second pick, and Maye was +155. On Tuesday the gap was much wider.
At BetMGM on Tuesday, Daniels moved to -450 and Maye to +350 for the second overall pick. The betting odds don’t always accurately predict what will happen, but that seems to indicate that whatever caused the betting market to take over Maye late last week has been corrected.
Combined with that move on Tuesday, Maye’s odds of finishing third overall changed to -300. Those odds were -160 on Monday. The New England Patriots currently hold the No. 3 selection, although they could trade the pick. But regardless of the team, Maye is a heavy favorite to move into that spot.
Adjust your trial designs accordingly.
Commanders seem to prefer Daniels
Last week there was a falling out between the commanders and Daniels’ agent after the team took the unusual step of having four quarterback prospects visit on the same day. These issues don’t seem to be an obstacle for Daniels to finish second in the overall standings. According to Robinson, he emerged from Washington’s process as the best of the quarterback prospects behind consensus No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams.
“As time went on, Daniels emerged as the most crafty and polished player among the ‘next three,’ with a much more consistent finish to his college career than Maye, and a much larger bank of film showing what he’s done versus the projection of what [J.J.] McCarthy might do that,” Robinson wrote.
The NFL Draft can be unpredictable and last-minute changes are not unheard of. But the odds are clearly in favor of Williams, Daniels and Maye to finish in the top three, in that order.
Then maybe we’ll see if there’s any drama with the fourth pick.
