Each of these breakout prospects, one from each of the past five draft classes, is poised to take a significant step forward. Whether they are already showing flashes of brilliance or are still quietly developing, these players are ready to take their game to the next level – and contribute to the future of their teams in important ways.
Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets
Drafted 2nd in 2023
Miller’s rookie season is actually two separate parts. In his first 38 games, he averaged 14.7 points on 53.6 percent true shooting, which is solid for a rookie. Especially someone who will be asked to gain a foothold on a struggling team like Charlotte. He was deadly at draining 3s off the catch, but fairly inconsistent in other departments.
Then something changed. Over his last 35 games, which began in late January, Miller stepped up his game: 20.3 points per game on 56.4 percent true shooting. He played more minutes, had a higher usage rate, and his efficiency increased all over the court when creating shots for himself. Check this out:
|
First 38 games |
Last 35 matches |
|
|
Restricted area |
57.1% |
64.9% |
|
In the paint |
36.6% |
39.7% |
|
Middle class |
46.5% |
52.2% |
|
3-pointers |
23.1% |
32.8% |
That’s a rookie figuring things out in real time. Miller created for himself, taking stronger angles to the rim, absorbing contact and showing newfound confidence with his midrange fadeaways and deep pull-up 3s. By the end of the season he was looking like a legitimate goalscorer.
But here’s where it gets really interesting: LaMelo Ball was out for the season at the end of January, right when Miller’s numbers started to pop. Chance? Probably not. Without LaMelo on the floor, Miller had more freedom to operate, and that’s where things could get tricky going forward. We all know LaMelo is a pass-first guard, and having a guy like that should make Miller’s life easier, give him neater looks and better assisted buckets. But if Miller is to continue his growth as a playmaker and self-creator, there needs to be some balance.
Think about last season: When Miller played next to LaMelo, he had the ball in his hands just 5.3 percent of the time. That’s Royce O’Neale territory. But when LaMelo was sidelined, that number jumped to 9.6 percent — basically Paul George’s level. What happens when LaMelo comes back? Is he willing to let Miller cook? Because if he does, it could be the key to Miller’s next leap, and from a pure basketball standpoint, there’s no doubt Miller is ready. The only question is how well he and LaMelo figure out how to coexist and maximize each other’s games.
Ryan Dunn, Phoenix Suns
Drafted 28th in 2024
Dunn was easy the top defensive prospect in the 2024 draft. At 6-foot-4 with a 7-foot-4 wingspan, he can switch positions, disrupt passing lanes, block shots – you name it. His defensive IQ is off the charts. Dunn flies around on defense, making impeccable rotations, contesting shots at the rim and generally making life miserable for opponents. In a league increasingly defined by versatile fullbacks, Dunn has the potential to be a Herb Jones-level lockdown man.
But the big question mark? His shooting. As a sophomore at Virginia, Dunn attempted just 35 3s in 34 games, shooting just 20 percent. Not only is that inconsistent, it’s almost unplayable in today’s NBA. So when the Suns took him at 28th overall, there was understandable skepticism. You knew what you were getting defensively, but could he survive offensively?
Here’s the twist: In four preseason games with the Suns, Dunn has made 12 of his 27 attempts from beyond the arc. Small sample size, of course, but there are reasons for optimism. His form looks much smoother, especially with the way he uses his legs, and the fact he’s taking shots more often shows a level of confidence that simply didn’t exist in Virginia. I spoke to scouts before the draft, and several claimed his shot had been reworked during pre-draft workouts. One director even told me I would regret ranking him in the 30s. After some rethinking and more digging, I moved it to 16th. Even that could prove too low if his jumper holds up.
If Dunn had hit even 35 percent from 3 on decent volume — not elite, just average — he would have been a lottery pick. If he shoots like he did in preseason, we’re talking top ten, maybe even top five. Defensively he is so special. And offensively, it’s not just about shooting. Dunn is a smart passer, a good screener and an efficient finisher at the rim.
And here’s why this matters to Phoenix: Defense and depth have been the biggest question marks this season. Dunn won’t solve everything, but he can make a real impact on both fronts. If his shot holds up, he gives the Suns a versatile two-way role player who can take some of the pressure off their stars. Yes, Phoenix’s season still depends on the health of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. But if Dunn continues to hit jumpers? He could be the kind of prop that raises their ceiling.
Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder
Drafted 12th in 2022
In the latest episode of The Kevin O’Connor Showa listener named Jacob asked me: Besides inexperience, what is the biggest hurdle keeping the Thunder from winning a championship? I said the answer is a second superstar behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. We know what SGA is capable of. But Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren both impressed in the postseason. Reasonable, considering their youth. But if a title is the expectation, one of them will have to blossom.
Williams seems the most likely candidate. This will be his third season and he has already shown flashes. But his biggest drawback in the playoffs was his reluctance to shoot 3s. He took some open looks at the catch and hesitated to pull up the dribble. He tried to get under four per game all season. However, things are changing this preseason. Williams shoots away from 3 and has attempted 10 shots in 33 minutes of play.
If Williams continues to hit three-pointers off the dribble like the one above, it will change the complexion of what this Thunder team can be. What if Williams doesn’t take that next step? OKC is still fun, still young, but probably stuck in the same “great, but no champions” category. Without that second star, Thunder will hit a wall. But if Jalen reaches the next level, we’re talking about a team built to win now, not just in the future. If he doesn’t, we’ll probably wait another year or two for this team to really break through.
Immanuel Quickley, Toronto Raptors
Drafted 25th overall in 2020 by the Knicks
Quickley’s trade with the Raptors last season brought a new level to his game. With the Knicks, Quickley put up solid numbers – 15 points and 2.5 assists per game – but after the trade to Toronto, those numbers jumped to 18.6 points and 6.8 assists. Quickley went from a sixth man to a starter and his offensive role was strengthened. In New York, Quickley received 41 touches per game and only held the ball for 3.2 minutes of possession. For the Raptors, those numbers shot up to 75 possessions and 6.2 minutes of possession per game. That’s almost double the time to run the offense, make decisions and create plays.
The Raptors rewarded Quickley with a five-year contract worth $162.5 million, which says a lot about how they feel about him. They didn’t need to sign the extension when they did.
That extra volume explains the massive increase in assists, and it’s also why he’s become such a crucial piece for the Raptors. If Quickley can continue this trend, he has the potential to become a cornerstone in Toronto’s offense.
Deuce McBride, New York Knicks
Drafted 36th in 2021
New York’s decision to trade Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo for Karl-Anthony Towns undoubtedly changes the frontcourt, but the ripple effects are hitting the backcourt just as hard. With DiVincenzo gone, the Knicks lost a playoff scorer and someone who provided stability on both ends of the floor. So now the question arises: who will step up? Miles “Deuce” McBride enters. Although smaller than DiVincenzo, McBride brings ferocious defense, a knockdown jumper and a dynamic shot creation that has only grown since last season, when the Knicks moved Quickley and RJ Barrett in a trade for OG Anunoby.
During his final two months last season, McBride averaged 30 minutes per game, scored just under 12 points while shooting 39 percent from 3. The Knicks felt comfortable moving Quickley and Barrett because they had confidence in DiVincenzo and McBride – and now they are. doubling down on Deuce by also trading DiVincenzo.
The Knicks have plenty of players ahead of McBride in the rotation. Jalen Brunson will lead the charge offensively, with Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart serving as versatile wings, and Towns anchoring the center. But McBride is positioned to be a potential Sixth Man of the Year candidate. He’s already proven the Knicks right once. And now, with even more responsibility, Deuce must make another leap before New York can benefit from his new roster.
