Nicole Auerbach and Joshua Perry’s midseason College Football Playoff predictions and awards

The college football regular season is (somehow) halfway over, but the craziness seems destined to continue throughout the fall and into the winter. We’ve seen wild finishes, major upsets and countless field storms as the sport experiences a level of parity we haven’t experienced in nearly two decades. And the national championship race will be more fascinating than ever before in the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff.

But before we get into the stretch run of the season and that inaugural 12-team bracket, Rushing The Field co-hosts and college football experts Nicole Auerbach and Joshua Perry got together to make their midseason CFP picks and select their midseason award winners.

Nicole Auerbach’s midseason picks:

Congratulations to Texas, Oregon, Clemson and BYU, the four power-conference champions in my midseason CFP projection and the lucky recipients of first-round byes in the upcoming postseason. This grouping of top seeds is quite different from my preseason bracket, but it’s based on early-season dominance by Texas (combined with Georgia’s loss to Alabama and a shaky win over Mississippi State), Oregon’s signature win over Ohio State in Week 7, and BYU’s surge to the top of the Big 12 rankings (coupled with Utah’s shocking season, once again marred by an injured Cam Rising).

I had predicted that Clemson would be the ACC champion back in August, and I’m sticking with that assertion even though Miami is undefeated and ranked ahead of the Tigers in the AP poll. The ‘Canes are THISCLOSE to having two league losses to their name, and I don’t trust them more than I trust a resurgent Clemson team to win the ACC. Boise State checks in at No. 10 as my highest-ranked champion from a Group of 5 conference. That is a rather high seed, as most experts have penciled in the fifth FBS champion at the No. 12 spot (because that’s the seed that team would get if they’re ranked below the top 12 spots in the selection committee’s final rankings). But I believe in the Broncos, and if they finish the season 12-1 with the lone loss coming by three points to Big Ten champion Oregon, they could certainly find themselves ranked higher. So, I put them at No. 10.

At-large bids were hard to determine, as was the order of the at-large teams. Ohio State earns the No. 5 seed as the highest-ranked non-conference champion. The Buckeyes are still one of the best and most talented teams in the nation even if they couldn’t knock off Oregon. Penn State nab the No. 6 seed after a strong and rather steady season; not having to be perfect through the regular season helps the Nittany Lions finally get over their hump and into the CFP. Georgia, flawed a bit more than in years past, still checks in at No. 7, and the aforementioned Hurricanes sneak in at No. 8. Seeds 5-8 all get to host games on their respective campuses.

Alabama makes the field as the No. 9 seed on the strength of its great win over Georgia, Notre Dame gets in at No. 11 after running the table following the September loss to Northern Illinois, and an Iowa State team that gets nipped by a team or two in Big 12 play still sneaks into the field at the No. 12 spot.

Ultimately, I think that the top of college football does end up separating from the pack, as we see with Texas, Oregon and Ohio State advancing throughout my bracket. And while I think the Buckeyes might be the team with the greatest collection of individual talent of anyone in the country, I have them falling in the national semifinals after running into the buzzsaw that is Texas. Then, I’ve got the Longhorns taking down Oregon in a thrilling national championship game that features two of the best quarterbacks in the country and a definitive answer to the age-old question: Is Texas back? Yes.

Joshua Perry’s midseason picks:

Doing the mid-season CFP was fun, but also extremely challenging. The deeper I got into it, the more I looked at it as a “who (or maybe what) do you trust the most?” exercise. In the midst of the chaos that is the 2024 college football season, it’s genuinely hard to really trust more than a few programs, but that means we’ll likely have a fun and unpredictable finish to the season. Without further delay, here are my picks!

Let’s start with the conference champs. Texas, Oregon, Clemson and Iowa State all get a bye. Texas, to this point, has been the most trustworthy team in the country. Coming off of their CFP appearance last season, expectations were high, but I think in the minds of many people who watch the sport (including myself), there was a lingering question of if they could follow it up. Sure, Quinn Ewers was back, but the wide receiver room completely turned over and the running back unit faced an unfortunate rash of injuries to start the season. Defensively, they lost two of their best interior defensive linemen, as well as other impact players. The doubts were warranted, but Texas totally reloaded. They are a blend of a high-powered offense that has overcome the questions about their losses and a defense, although untested by a CFP caliber offense, that is statistically the best in the country. The Longhorns are unquestionably the No. 1 team and I believe they will secure the top seed.

Oregon is the two seed as the Big Ten champs. Listen, it was a shaky start for Dan Lanning and Co. The first two games were alarming. The scoreboard didn’t look right and neither did the offensive line tasked with protecting Dillon Gabriel. The Ducks, bit by bit, started rounding into form, but the question still remained of whether or not they could beat Ohio State in a top-3 matchup. They won and although the score was close, the performance felt emphatic. Oregon cruised to nearly 500 yards. Dillon Gabriel was rarely pressured. The Ducks shut down Ohio State’s two headed monster at running back in the second half of that game. But maybe the biggest thing we learned is that Dan Lanning is a master of the dark arts who is absolutely capable of winning the big game.

I think the three seed will go to the ACC champs, and I trust Clemson to get the job done. I don’t think I’m alone in saying that I wrote Clemson off after their week 1 loss to Georgia. I thought Dabo Swinney had completely lost his touch and the team just looked like they didn’t have the same elite players on either side of the ball. Now that we are halfway through the season, I think it can be true that we aren’t looking at “dynasty Clemson”, but we are looking at a team that has found its stride, particularly on offense, and can certainly win the ACC. Miami came into to play here, but I trust Dabo in this spot.

Finally, I do believe the Big 12 gets the last bye here, although it’s not guaranteed. Remember, if the G5 champ is higher ranked than a power conference champ, then the spot is theirs! And it’s not impossible to think, as chaotic as the Big 12 has been, that a lower ranked team in that conference championship game could pull off the upset and open the door for a team like Boise State, for example. Anyway, Iowa State, your table is set. Matt Campbell leads the Cyclones to the Big 12 Championship. They’re a flawed team, no doubt, but they are stout defensively. I believe that defense can bail them out when things get tricky down the stretch and ultimately helps them avoid the pitfalls of Big 12 conference chaos.

As for the at large bids, I have (in order) Ohio State, Miami, Penn State, Georgia, BYU, Alabama, Notre Dame and Boise State. It feels like Oregon showed enough to be in control of the Big Ten but Ohio State is right behind them. I’m not sure I trust Ryan Day to beat them for a conference title, but I trust them to at least be close in the rematch I’m predicting. Penn State is not far off either, but I do think they fall at home to Ohio State as the only blemish on their regular season resume. Miami is also not far behind Clemson in my mind. They should be in the ACC Championship game. My trust in Mario Cristobal to get the win in that one is not high, though. The SEC is so interesting to me. The teams have looked more vulnerable than anticipated, but I think the urgency of being able to make a run at a championship whips UGA and Bama into shape. BYU will finish the season strong enough to make it in and so will Notre Dame. However, I do believe there will be a little bit of controversy with Boise State at 12. It would not shock me if committee members make excuses to rank them at 12 just because, when there is a case that they should be higher ranked than power conference at large picks.

Plus, a look at shaky performances from both Alabama and Tennessee and a shoutout to a surprising ACC contender.

In the end, I think Ohio State makes it to the final 4. They’re talented enough and a lot of players on that roster came back specifically to have a chance to win a title. I could also see Miami in the semis as well. As I mentioned at the start, this is an exercise about trust, and although I mentioned my distrust of Mario Cristobal, I trust the playmaking of Cam Ward and I really trust the idea of Miami thriving in utter playoff chaos. However, the two best teams at this point are the two teams remaining in the end and I have Texas getting the best of Oregon to win the CFP this season.

The midseason Heisman Trophy goes to …

Auerbach: Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty. I went back and forth between Jeanty and Colorado two-way star Travis Hunter, but I ultimately decided to give the edge to the running back who could break Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record — that is, if he opts to play both halves of his remaining games and tries to break it. Sanders rushed for 2,628 yards in just 11 games, but Jeanty’s up to 1,248 through six (and, if we’re being specific, it’s actually just five games because he sat out for the second halves vs. Portland State and Utah State). Even if Jeanty comes up short, he’s having a season for the ages. He’s averaging 9.9 yards per carry with 25 “explosive” runs as defined by PFF (as runs of 10 or more yards), and he’s forced 48 missed tackles so far this season. He’s rushed for more than 200 yards in half of Boise State’s games! He’s been spectacular, so much so that his pre-snap stance has turned into a bit of a meme. That’s how you know he’s really made it.

Perry: Ashton Jeanty is the guy for me. It’s actually just as exciting each week watching his performances, even though I have come to expect it. His stats are mind-boggling. Jeanty is averaging 208 rushing yards per game. That would be good for top 25 nationally if he was his own team! His 17 rushing TDs are more than 118 teams! It’s actually wild when you put into context how productive he is and I can’t wait to watch the finish to his historic season. Now, as a general thought on this Heisman race, I love the fact that a G5 conference RB who plays late games on the west coast, and a two-way superstar in a program that’s not a contender (Travis Hunter at Colorado), are the two frontrunners. Sure, Dillon Gabriel re-launched his campaign with his performance against Ohio State, but the idea that folks are actually considering all options makes me feel like the award will really go to the most outstanding player in college football.

The midseason National Coach of the Year award goes to …

Auerbach: Indiana coach Curt Cignetti. He might be the only man in America who thought the Hoosiers could be this good in Year 1 (or any year, considering the history of this program). Indiana is 6-0 for just the second time in program history, and this team might be favored in all but one of its remaining games. The Hoosiers have never won 10 wins in a single season … yet. Things that didn’t seem possible at Indiana now seem doable, thanks to Cignetti and the way he’s building the foundation for his Hoosier program. The Hoosiers have one of the best defenses and one of the best offenses in the nation — led by Ohio transfer quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who may have an outside shot at a trip to New York City as a Heisman finalist. Nothing about Indiana’s success so far has been fluky; this is just an uber-confident head coach who’s won at every level he’s coached, confident he can do the same in Bloomington. And so far he has exceeded everyone else’s wildest dreams.

Perry: I thought about Clark Lea for this. Vanderbilt knocking off Alabama will be the game many college football fans will use to recall the 2024 season for decades to come. They are a phenomenal story. But I have to go with Curt Cignetti, and it’s not that close in my mind. For starters, I don’t think this Indiana team is just a great story. As we sit, Cignetti has this team at #16 in the AP poll, boasting an undefeated record and one of the most productive offenses in the nation. Beyond that, Indiana is squarely in the race to make it to Indy for the Big Ten Championship. Likely? Probably not. They still have Nebraska, Washington, Michigan and Ohio State. The remaining schedule isn’t a layup. But what if I told you that Ohio State is the lone road game of the four? You would feel better about their chances. And then, what if I told you they play Ohio State the week before OSU’s rivalry matchup with Michigan… You know, the one OSU has lost the last three straight years. You can start to see the path for Indiana to do what everyone but Curt Cignetti thought was unthinkable. This team is legitimately good and Coach Cig is more than deserving of this award in year one.