MIAMI – The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its 2024 forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins on June 1. NOAA’s report predicts an “above average” hurricane season with 17 to 25 named storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes, and 4 to 7 major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
“Note that the forecast for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes is the highest NOAA has ever issued for the May outlook,” said NOAA Administrator Dr. Rick Spinrad.
According to NOAA’s 2024 outlook, there is an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. Of these forecasts, NOAA said its forecasters have 70% confidence in these ranges.
Hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and ends on November 30, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October. An average season has fourteen named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The upcoming season is expected to see above-average activity due to a variety of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, the development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear. which tend to favor the formation of tropical storms, Spinrad said.
“We expected an above-average forecast from NOAA this year. We all look for the same signals. For this season, it comes down to two major factors: a developing La Niña pattern in the eastern Pacific and record-breaking sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic basin,” Ivan Cabrera, chief meteorologist and hurricane specialist for CBS Miami, said of the forecast.
“These two key factors are what we are looking at and if they come together as we think they will, we can expect a very active hurricane season this year,” Cabrera added.
As one of the strongest El Niños ever observed nears its end, NOAA predicts a rapid transition to La Niña conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because these conditions tend to reduce wind shear in the tropics. At the same time, the abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Seas creates more energy to fuel storm development.
In addition, this hurricane season also brings the potential for an above-normal West African monsoon, which can produce easterly winds that can produce some of the strongest and longest-lived Atlantic storms, according to NOAA.
Finally, light trade winds allow hurricanes to gain strength without the disruption of strong wind shear and minimize ocean cooling.
“Human-induced climate change is warming our oceans globally and in the Atlantic Basin, and melting land ice, leading to sea level rise, which increases the risk of storm surge,” NOAA said. “Sea level rise represents a clear human influence on the damage potential of a given hurricane.”
During Thursday’s press conference, NOAA also released the list of 2024 Hurricane Names ranging from Alberto to William.
While “all the ingredients” are in place for an active season, National Weather Service (NWS) Director Ken Graham said this is a reason to be “concerned but not alarmed.”
NOAA, NWS and FEMA also provided guidance on how the public can prepare for a potential storm to hit their area, while Spinrad, Graham and FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik Hooks reminded everyone that preparedness is key.
“Before hurricane season officially begins, my message to the American people is this: Take the time to ensure you have a clear understanding of your unique risk now,” Hooks said.
That includes making sure you have all your belongings and valuables with you before the storm hits, including medications, personal documents and electronics.
NOAA said it will implement improvements to its forecast communications, decision support and storm recovery efforts this season. These include expanding the offering of Spanish-language text products and releasing an experimental version of the prediction cone graphic around August 15, and if necessary, issue regular and interim public advisories instead of having to wait every six hours.
In addition, the agency is introducing new tools for hurricane analysis and forecasting, along with system upgrades for the 2024 season.
First, two new forecast models developed by NOAA researchers will be deployed this season: the Modular Ocean Model (MOM6) will be added to the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System to capture the key role the ocean plays in driving hurricane intensity. The other model, called SDCON, will predict the likelihood of a rapid intensification of the tropical cyclone.
NOAA’s Next Generation Flood Inundation Mapping, which Spinrad noted was made possible by President Joe Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure law, will provide information to emergency and water managers to prepare for and respond to potential flooding and will help local officials direct people and better prepare and protect infrastructure.
Also, NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, in collaboration with the National Hurricane Center (NHC), will release an experimental precipitation graph for the Caribbean and Central America this season. This graph shows the forecast rainfall totals associated with a tropical cyclone or disturbance for a given period.
Before and during the official start of the season, NOAA upgraded many coastal weather buoys in the tropical western Atlantic and Caribbean with time of occurrence and measurements of one-minute wind speed and direction, peak wind gust and direction five seconds, and lowest barometric pressure of one minute to support tropical cyclone forecasting.
New for 2024, NOAA will collect additional observations using Directional Wave Spectra Drifters (DWSDs) deployed from the NOAA P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft and near Saildrones – unmanned surface vehicles that will be deployed at the start of the season to to provide one minute of data in real time. NOAA said 11 to 12 Saildrones will be deployed this season.
Starting in June, NOAA will deploy dozens of observational underwater gliders to the waters off the Caribbean coast, the Gulf of Mexico and the east coast of the United States. Also, a new lightweight dropsonde called Streamsonde will be deployed to developing tropical storms to collect multiple real-time observations to collect valuable wind data.
NOAA also introduced the Coordinated Hurricane Atmosphere-Ocean Sampling (CHAOS) research experiment, which aims to improve understanding of air-sea interactions and enable sustainable monitoring of key ocean features.
These projects will increase ocean and atmosphere observations in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, U.S. East Coast and tropical Atlantic regions, NOAA said.
Other predictions for the 2024 hurricane season
Researchers from the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project have predicted this April an “extremely active” 2024 season, including 23 named storms. In previous years there was an average of 14.4 named storms. Their prediction included a 62% chance of one Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane to make landfall on the continental US coastline, an increase over the average forecast of 43%.
Along the East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, the probability rose from 21% to 34% – which was the average probability between 1880 and 2020. Along the Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle, the increase was greater. Researchers predicted a 42% probability in that area, compared to an average of 27% in previous years.
Stephanie Abrams, a meteorologist for The Weather Channel, also presented a similar forecast, telling CBS Mornings in March that rising global air and ocean temperatures could set the stage for an “explosive hurricane season.”
A look back at the 2023 hurricane season
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season finished as the fourth busiest for most named storms. It ended with twenty named storms, seven of which became hurricanes and of which three intensified into major hurricanes.
There were three storms that made landfall in the US. Two tropical storms made landfall, one in Texas and the other in North Carolina.
The only landfall was by a hurricane Idalia. The hurricane made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane near Keaton Beach, Florida, on August 30, causing flooding with an 8- to 10-foot storm surge and widespread rainfall in Florida and the Southeast.
According to NOAA, four of the 15 deadliest and most destructive hurricanes ever recorded, happened in the last 25 years.
