Ohio State (6-1) is beating opponents by an average margin of 31 points (#2 in FBS) while ranking in the Top 10 nationally on both sides of the ball in success rate, EPA/play and points per scoring opportunity. The only statistical weakness is that OSU allows a 64% completion rate, which ranks 108th nationally. Ohio State faces the second-fewest deep pass attempts in the country, with only 7.2% of passes defensed occurring more than 20 yards down the field. The Buckeyes are in the midst of a challenging three-game season against @Oregon (32-31 L), Nebraska (21-17 W) and this weekend @Penn State.
The Nittany Lions (7-0) have powered through the first half with their biggest win coming in a Week 7 comeback win, 33-30 over @USC. Despite being a close affair, their decision over USC still came with an 86% win expectancy, while each of their other six wins came with a perfect 100% win expectancy. While PSU’s offense ranks third in success rate, eighth in EPA/play and ninth in 3-and-out%, they also rank 92nd in yards per successful play and 81st in explosiveness. Defensively, Penn State has been virtually flawless and ranks third in SP+, but they are only averaging a 6% sack rate (59th) and a 17% sack rate, in addition to allowing 11.0 yards per successful rush.
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Game details and how to watch Ohio State @ Penn State
· Date: Saturday November 2, 2024
· Time: 12:00 PM EST
· Location: Beaver Stadium
· City: University Park, PA
· TV/streaming: FOX
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Ohio State @ Penn State Game Odds
The latest odds from Wednesday morning:
The big game of the weekend opened OSU (-3), but has since added the crucial hook and is (-3.5) across the board at time of publication. You could get Ohio State at -162 on the moneyline at the open, with the best price right now at -175. Penn State dropped to +136, but is now almost uniformly +150. The uncertainty surrounding the health of PSU QB Drew Allar has caused the game total to drop from 48 to a low of 45.
NBC Sportsbook Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“With Penn State being strong on both sides of the ball and Ohio State looking mortal the past two games against Oregon and Nebraska, I’m leaning against the Nittany Lions at +3.5 points. I am also cautiously optimistic that Allar will play, which I take into account in the decision.”
Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts, Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp, actionable insight, market analysis and statistics to help bettors gain more information before placing their bets.
BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Line movement (last week to now)
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Georgia +350 to +325
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Oregon +500 to +450
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Texas A&M +3000 to +2200
Highest ticket%
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State of Ohio 14.5%
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Texas 12.0%
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Georgia 11.1%
Highest Handle%
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State of Ohio 18.9%
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Georgia 17.0%
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Texas 11.7%
Biggest obligations
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State of Ohio
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Tennessee
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Colorado
Quarterback matchup for Ohio State @ Penn State
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State of Ohio: Hard to argue with QB Will Howard’s decision to transfer from Kansas State to OSU as he currently leads the nation’s ninth-ranked SP+ offense for a Top 5 national title program. He completes a whopping 74% of his throws and has a decorated fleet of wideouts to work with. The Buckeyes’ passing game ranks second in success rate and sixth in EPA/dropback, despite only 8.9% of passes being thrown more than 20 yards downfield (128th). Howard’s PFF grade in the 79th percentile is the highest of his five-year career, with the previous high being 72.7%.
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Penn State: Under normal circumstances, five-star QB Drew Allar would be under center, but Allar suffered a knee injury that makes his availability for this game questionable. Then there’s QB Beau Pribula (6’2/206), who has completed 29 of 44 career passes (65%) for 249 yards, 7.9 yards per attempt and a 7-to-1 ratio. Pribula’s calling card, however, is his legs , he rushed for 468 yards for 6.0 YPC and seven more touchdowns on the ground, for a career total of 14, despite being a backup until Allar went down against Wisconsin last week. Despite limited reps, Pribula’s 88% offensive PFF grade indicates he could be a credible fill-in if called upon.
Trends and recent stats for the Buckeyes and the Nittany Lions
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Ohio State has thrown for 1,987 passing yards in seven games, 20th in the FBS. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 175 passing yards per game, which ranks 18th best in the country.
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Generational freshman WR Jeremiah Smith has gained 40+ yards on 5 of his 35 receptions, 4th-most among Power Four wideouts. Fellow freshman Alabama WR Ryan Williams ranks No. 1, with 20% of his catches (7 of 35) being explosive 40+ yard plays.
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Penn State TE Tyler Warren has racked up 10 third-down receptions, the most among B10 tight ends, while also being targeted seven times in the red zone, second-most in the Big Ten.
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PSU leads the Power Four in red zone yards per target, collecting 220 receiving yards on 26 targets for an 8.5 YPT average. UCF ranks last with 30 receiving yards on 15 red zone targets (2.0).
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