Utah’s Republican Governor Spencer Cox leads his Democratic opponent, state Rep. Brian King, by 32 percentage points in the latest Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll, conducted less than a month before the general election.
A majority of respondents said if the election were held today, they would vote for Cox. In an all-vote scenario, Cox received 51%, King 19%, independent US candidate Tommy Williams 4%, Libertarian Party candidate Robert Latham 3% and unaffiliated candidate Tom Tomeny 2%.
More than a fifth of respondents, 22%, said they were unsure or unsure which of the five candidates on the ballot they would vote for. The poll did not include an option to write in the name of another candidate.
When undecided voters were asked to choose between the five candidates on the ballot, Cox’s lead increased by 10 percentage points to 61%. King’s total rose to 21%. Third-party candidates each experienced a small increase, but none exceeded 10%.
The poll was conducted by HarrisX among 813 registered voters in Utah between October 15 and 19 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.
Cox responds to polls
The Cox campaign said the poll results confirm that Utahns approve of the governor’s job during his time in office.
“Government. Cox continues to deliver for voters by signing the largest tax cut in Utah history and supporting major pay increases for teachers, now placing Utah teachers in the top 10 in the nation in starting salaries. He will continue to work hard to earn voters’ support,” campaign spokesman Matt Lusty said.
The poll showed Cox has a 56% approval rating for his job as governor, with 18% of respondents saying they strongly agree, 38% saying they somewhat agree, 18% saying they somewhat disapprove and 14% say they strongly disapprove. a total of one-third of Utahns disapprove of Cox’s actions during his time in office.
Cox’s approval rating rises to 64% among self-identified Republicans and remains high, at 61%, among self-identified conservatives. Nearly half of Democratic respondents, 49%, and independent respondents, 47%, said they approved of Cox’s term in office.
King responds to the poll results
The King campaign said the poll results may reflect Cox’s high name recognition but ignore “the reality on the ground.”
“Utahs are fed up with a governor who serves as a lapdog for an overreaching, politically monopolized Legislature while ignoring the issues that impact everyday Utahns,” said campaign manager Gaby Finlayson. “Brian King is building a coalition of voters who are tired of being ignored and are willing to make their voices heard. We are confident that Utah will see the power of pragmatic, values-driven leadership on election night.”
While the poll shows Cox has broad support, including among Democrats, the partisan split shows more polarized support. If the election were held today, 27% of Democrats said they would vote for Cox, while 56% said they would vote for King and 11% said they were unsure.
Breaking down the results by party identification, 68% of Republican respondents currently plan to vote for Cox, 9% plan to vote for King, and 17% say they are unsure who they would choose from the names on the ballot paper. It is unclear how many of these respondents plan to write in Phil Lyman, who lost to Cox in the Republican Party primary after winning the state convention among party delegates.
Election Day
An August Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll showed Cox with a 40 percentage point lead in a head-to-head matchup with King.
Early October polling from Noble Predictive Insights showed Cox leading among likely voters with 49% of support to King’s 23% and Lyman’s 5%, while nearly 20% of voters were undecided.
Election day is Tuesday, November 5. Utah voters should have received their ballots last week. You can find the Deseret News’ political coverage here.
