Predicting Where Warriors Will Finish in the Rugged Western Conference originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area
After slipping from third to sixth to 10th in the Western Conference each of the past three NBA seasons, the Warriors believe they have improved over the offseason and are therefore poised to move up.
However, one look at the depth of the conference provides a sobering refutation: Being better doesn’t necessarily result in a higher finish.
The West is still as top-heavy as last season, but the second and third divisions are even deeper. The gap between fourth and twelfth place has narrowed.
Of the 15 teams in the West, only the rebuilding franchises in Portland and Utah can be ignored in serious postseason conversations. The San Antonio Spurs, also rebuilding, could pursue a spot in the NBA Play-In Tournament. The remaining 12 teams will fight for one of six guaranteed spots or, at the very least, one of four Play-In slots.
The Western Conference was the main topic of NBC Sports Bay Area’s “Dubs Talk” podcast this week. There were so many variables that a planned 30-minute conversation with our guest, NBA national writer Sam Amick of The Athletic, stretched to an hour.
The top three teams are, on paper, solid. The Oklahoma City Thunder were the No. 1 seed last season and improved with the additions of Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein. The Denver Nuggets, who finished second last season, should fall after losing two-way guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. The Minnesota Timberwolves finished third and are not expected to finish lower.
The reigning conference champions, Dallas Mavericks, look set to finish in fourth place, securing home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
“I think Dallas is there,” Amick said of the roster bolstered by the acquisition of ex-Warrior Klay Thompson. “I definitely don’t have the Lakers in there. Phoenix is going to be good; I think more time together should help them, but (their) roster is so unbalanced. So I’m probably going OKC, Minnesota, Denver and Dallas.”
The remaining two guaranteed playoff spots are being chased by the Phoenix Suns, the New Orleans Pelicans, the surging Houston Rockets, the rebounding Memphis Grizzlies – and Northern California rivals the Warriors and Sacramento Kings.
Sacramento finished ninth last season, with Golden State finishing 10th. The Kings won their Play-In game, meaning Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Thompson went through their first ever summer without a playoff appearance.
The Warriors are slightly improved in our opinion. Buddy Hield needs an adjustment period but has the potential to replace Thompson’s shooting. Kyle Anderson offers two-way versatility off the bench. De’Anthony Melton will help the defense and contribute to the offense.
If Curry is generally competent, Green is atypically available and Gary Payton II is healthy, the Warriors have top-eight potential. If incoming assistant coaches Terry Stotts (offense) and Jerry Stackhouse (defense) can have a positive impact, Golden State could even slip into the top six.
There are definitely a lot of ‘ifs’, but that goes for most of these teams.
“I think what people forget is how good the Warriors were in the second half,” Amick said, referring to Golden State’s 27-12 record in the last 39 games.
Golden State’s rousing season finale was crushed by the Kings in the Play-In game at Golden 1 Center. Sacramento took the lead three minutes into the game and stayed ahead 118-94. Those Kings were good.
The new-look Kings could be better. The addition of five-time All-Star guard DeMar DeRozan, at the expense of Harrison Barnes, gives them another proven closer to pair with De’Aaron Fox. Malik Monk, a lightning bolt off the bench, opted to re-sign and take another shot at Sixth Man of the Year.
Kings or Warriors? Who comes out on top? I say Warriors. Amick disagrees.
“I’m going to give it to the Kings,” he said. “I’m going to go with the more familiar commodity. I trust Fox and (Domantas) Sabonis and Keegan (Murray) and Monk. I know what they are. When they’re healthy, they’re really good. And I’m a big thumbs up to DeRozan, too.
“And as great and amazing as Steph is, he needs the help. There’s a lot of question marks around him right now that maybe the answers will come, and we’ll have a fascinating conversation in six months where they’re really figuring it out. And that’s possible. It’s the NBA. Crazy things happen.”
Besides the top three and bottom three, there will be some “crazy stuff” happening in the West. The Los Angeles Clippers, for example, are the only ones who will definitely drop out of the top six. They could fight for a Play-In spot. After that, it’s a scrum.
The Suns will once again be rebuilt around Bradley Beal, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant – three All-Stars – and not much else. Can Tyus Jones and Monte Morris, stellar reserve point guards, work together to stabilize a position that was a glaring weakness last season?
The Los Angeles Lakers? How long can LeBron James, who turns 40 in December, defy the aging process? This could be the year that LA’s imposing duo of Anthony Davis and James miss another bunch of games. They missed a combined 17 last season, their fewest totals since they became teammates in 2019.
“I’m curious to see JJ Reddick’s impact and how that part goes,” Amick said, referring to the first-time head coach. “Because as much as Darvin Ham got criticized, Darvin took them to the West Finals the year before. Darvin eventually lost the support of the star players and JJ has that now.”
The Pelicans now have four proven scorers: Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, Dejounte Murray and Zion Williamson. But Zion’s availability will determine their ceiling.
The Grizzlies, coming off a miserable 27-55 season, will get a boost from the return of Ja Morant, Marcus Smart and a full season from Desmond Bane. The trio missed a combined 177 games last season.
The Rockets? Even with talented center Alperen Șengun sidelined, they made a run at the end of last season. They should tick up and at least be good enough to make more established teams sweat.
Buckle up. There will be blood in the West. Will the Warriors be equipped to cause more than they lose? Know that they will not sit back. Not under the watch of CEO Joe Lacob. Not with Curry peering through a magnifying glass at the entire operation.
If the Warriors are mid-table in the table (they should be at least that high), then they will certainly be pursuing a deal before the transfer deadline.
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