We’re starting our series of looks at potential Yankees trade targets with a real pie-in-the-bullpen candidate, because after all, isn’t the MLB Trade Deadline all about pursuing big dreams?
And make no mistake, the Yankees have them, with a World Series drought that has been going on since their last title in 2009. Maybe Mason Millerthe superlative Oakland Athletics, could help them realize those Fall Classic fantasies.
Would it be expensive? Oh, yeah. And while SNY’s Andy Martino has said it’s hard to tell Brian Cashman paying an astronomical price for a reliever, there is tremendous pressure on the Yanks to make impactful moves this season. Enormous.
They don’t know if they will Juan Sotoan impending free agent, after this year. Aaron Judgethe best player in baseball right now, is in his 32nd season. This may not be the year to hesitate to fill the gaps in this year’s model.
And based on the recent skid that has seen these Yankees look uncomfortably like the 2023 version of going nowhere, there are obviously holes. One is in the bullpen. (Actually, probably more than one.) But the glaring one is a hard-throwing bat miss to get closer Clay Holmesthe sinker-baller who thrives on producing weak contact and ground balls.
That addition is Miller. Here’s a look at the pros and cons of the Yankees trying to make a deal with Oakland for the righty, who owns a handy 2.02 ERA entering Thursday’s games.
The pros
Miller, 25, is a standout in the making whenever he steps onto the mound, thanks to a four-seam fastball that averages better than 100 mph and has maxed out at 104. Batters are hitting a dismal .131 against that pitch, and his 87-mph slider is a potent partner, limiting opponents to a .143 clip. He destroys hitters.
He has 14 saves in 16 chances and has allowed just 16 hits in 35.2 innings while giving up 62 strikeouts and 13 walks. He averages 15.6 strikeouts per nine innings and throws out 46.6 percent of the batters he faces, more than double the MLB average.
We’d have to listen to more of that infernal two-strike sound the Yankees play in the stadium if Miller were in pinstripes. But he would certainly cheer up the Bronx crowd with his flaming stuff.
And help out the bullpen, which needs it. After Thursday’s game in Toronto, the Yankees have a 3.47 bullpen ERA, fourth in MLB. Not bad, but their pen is tumbling—through June 1, the relief ERA was 2.85, second in the majors. Overall, the Yankees’ pen has generated 1.5 WAR, which ranks just 17th, according to FanGraphs.
Imagine the combination of Miller blowing away hitters with his heat and slider in the eighth inning, followed by Holmes’ bowling-ball sinker, which has resulted in 66 percent of grounders, well above the MLB average of 42.6 percent. Sounds like a hitting nightmare that could last into October.
The Yanks will have to figure out some other pen roles and possibly add more weapons, including a lefty. But Miller is said to be a flamethrowing monster. That would also mean he didn’t go to the Orioles, who are also believed to be on the lookout for relief help.
The cons
There’s no guarantee Miller will become available – that’s the first con. The Yankees and A’s have been successful trade partners several times in the past, but that doesn’t mean GM Brian Cashman can lure Miller from Oakland.
And the cost could be prohibitive anyway. Someone that good would be expensive, and Miller isn’t eligible for arbitration until 2026 and won’t be a free agent until 2030. Make that very expensive, given all that club control. The A’s would, rightfully so, want to add big-time talent in return.
Could the Yankees part with a huge prospect haul? Is a reliever, any reliever, worth multiple top-end farm pieces? I’m not sure, but you could ask the 2016 Cubs. I bet they would say yes.
Still, relievers as a group are unpredictable, which is why contenders spend so much time trying to acquire them at the deadline. Every team with a shot at a playoff spot needs relief pieces, whether it’s because their own corps are plagued by performance fluctuations or injuries. So investing a lot of prospect capital in a reliever, even one as tempting as Miller, is a risk.
Miller was diagnosed with a UCL sprain last May and did not return to the majors until September, although he did not require surgery. The A’s managed his workload when he returned, and he made six big league appearances, although the results were nowhere near as spectacular as this season.
One final downside: The Yankees may already have their big bullpen arm in-house, depending on how they look at it. Luis Gil’s workload in the future. Gil has already thrown 85.2 innings this season and his career-high is 108.2 in 2021. Last season he only threw four innings. Can the Yanks move him to a relief role and use his high-powered stuff to line up for Holmes? Then maybe they don’t need Miller.
The verdict
The Yankees dug deep into their farm system to acquire Soto, but there are prospects to help the big club, whether that be in pinstripes or as a trade asset. If Miller can be had, they should pursue him.
Here’s a compromise: Evaluate Gil as a reliever first. His last four starts (8.82 ERA) have looked nothing like the first 12, when he had a 1.82 ERA and gave up just 30 hits in 69.2 innings. If the Yanks limit his innings, maybe his four-seamer, hard changeup, and slider trio will come into play.
If Gil-to-the-pen isn’t in their plans, so be it. Go for Molenaar.
Not every prospect is going to be a star — just look through the prospect lists from a few years ago and you’ll see — and great talent is worth the risk. This is a big season in the Bronx. Not the time to waver on the price tag for what could be a piece that not only gets them to October, but carries them through.
