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The Midwest is a key focus area for Democrats and Republicans in the 2024 presidential election.
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GOP leaders believe Trump‘s choice of Ohioan JD Vance as his running mate will give him a boost in the region.
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But Vance trailed far behind other Republicans in his 2022 Senate race, especially in the suburbs.
After former President Donald Trump named Sen. JD Vance as his running mate on Monday, all eyes turned to the 39-year-old Ohio Republican, who was elected president less than two years ago.
In 2022, Vance was best known for his best-selling book, “Hillbilly Elegy.” But after Trump endorsed him in the Republican Party primaries that year, the candidate rose in contention for the first time, running against then-Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan in the general elections.
Many Republicans saw Vance as a candidate who would easily connect with the working class that typically determines election results in Ohio, a once quintessential Midwestern battleground that has taken on a redder hue in recent years.
However, the battle between Vance and Ryan remained extremely close until the end, even as other Republicans from across the state achieved narrow victories that year.
For some Republicans, that race may be a distant memory, but it highlights the significant risks Vance’s candidacy poses for the party as it seeks to retake the White House this fall.
The cloak of populism
In 2022, Ryan, a native of the working-class Mahoning Valley, ran an aggressive campaign, taking Republicans to task over the economy and trying to outdo Vance on the issue.
Ryan’s focus was squarely on Ohio. He eschewed national Democrats, preferring to campaign with fellow Ohioan and Sen. Sherrod Brown rather than tour the state with President Joe Biden. And he courted Republicans and conservative-leaning independents, arguing that he would not be tied to their party.
It was the kind of populist mantle that Vance also tried to conquer in many ways.
But Vance’s populism was largely tied to Trump’s “America First” policies, particularly on the economy and foreign policy. Trump won Ohio easily in both 2016 and 2020, but Vance struggled to break away from Ryan in his Senate race, despite Biden’s unpopularity in the Buckeye State and the state’s GOP lean.
Although Vance won the race in November, the extent of his struggle became clear on election night.
Vance defeated Ryan by 6 points.
But Republican Gov. Mike DeWine defeated his Democratic opponent, former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley, by 25 points. And both Attorney General Dave Yost and Secretary of State Frank LaRose were re-elected by about 20 points.
Ryan was undoubtedly a strong candidate, but Vance’s underperformance relative to other Republicans in Ohio was quite striking. You could even argue that DeWine’s influence helped Vance get over the finish line, as Ryan clearly won over many voters who also supported Republican officeholders across the state.
What does the result say about Vance’s broader appeal?
The suburban-rural divide
This fall, Republicans hope to gain more influence among suburban voters, despite their past distaste for Trump and the more socially conservative candidates who have embraced his views.
Trump hopes that economic concerns will lure some independents and Democratic-leaning swing voters to his side.
And Republicans believe Vance’s presence on the GOP ticket will make a difference in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — especially in suburban and rural areas — and give the former president a boost.
But in urban and suburban communities across Ohio, Vance was overshadowed by Ryan in the Senate race.
In the Cincinnati region, where Vance lives, Ryan won populous Hamilton County by nearly 16 points.
In Franklin County, which is led by Columbus, Ryan won by 32 points.
And in Cuyahoga County, which includes Cleveland and its suburbs, Ryan emerged victorious by nearly 36 points.
On a range of issues, from abortion rights to aid to Ukraine, Vance has taken positions far to the right than those of many suburbanites.
Vance praised the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade — a problematic position for many moderates — and he praised Trump’s decision to leave the abortion issue up to the states.
The Ohio senator is also a staunch opponent of providing aid to Ukraine, a position that has endeared him to Trumpworld but is a far cry from the position of GOP leaders like Sens. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and John Thune of South Dakota.
While Vance could be a big asset for Trump in rural areas of the Rust Belt, the senator has so far not shown much strength in the suburbs, where Democrats are looking to increase their margins.
Republicans aren’t going to give up the suburbs this year. But Vance’s poor performance in the Ohio Senate gives Democrats hope they can stave off the GOP ticket as they look toward November.
Read the original article on Business Insider
