LONDON — If Donald Trump wins next month’s U.S. presidential election, he will find a hotbed of political parties across the Atlantic that share his right-wing mix of authoritarianism, populism and extreme hostility to immigration.
This is the rise of the far right in Europe, which peaked on September 29 when the Austrian Freedom Party won the largest share of the vote – 28.9% – in the national elections. The FPÖ, as it is known, was founded by former Nazis and aims to ‘remigrate’ Austrian citizens with migrant roots to create a more ‘homogeneous’ society.
This is not a new trend, and the current cycle has been covered by NBC News and others for at least a decade. But the past twelve months have been a celebration for this former edge of the political spectrum. There have been major victories for the French National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, but also for Dutch anti-Islam radical Geert Wilders and the neighboring Alternative for Germany, which is being monitored by Berlin’s intelligence service for suspected extremism.
“The general trend is unmistakable: the extreme right is gaining ground,” says Matthijs Rooduijn, professor of politics at the University of Amsterdam. European “far-right parties are here to stay,” agreed Cas Mudde, professor of international affairs at the University of Georgia and author of 2019’s “The Far Right Today.”
Some scholars trace the roots of this wave to two events: the global financial crisis of 2007-2008 and the spike in migration to Europe in 2015, fueled by wars and unrest in the Middle East and North Africa. The economic crisis has left Europeans poorer, with crumbling public services and infrastructure. The border crisis saw a rapid influx of people, many from Muslim-majority countries.
It is a well-known cocktail: an economically troubled population that uses racism as a salve. In recent decades, increases in immigration during economic downturns have “pushed voters toward the most extreme version of the far right, with immigrants blamed for unemployment,” according to a 2018 study in the London peer-reviewed journal Electoral Studies.
Today is no different, with historic inflation rates, the erosion of social programs and the European energy crisis fueling economic fears.
“Indigenous people are being ignored because of massive immigration,” Wilders, leader of the Dutch Freedom Party, said last year. “We must now think of our own people first. Borders closed. Zero asylum seekers.”
Wilders, who rejects the label ‘extreme right’, has previously called Islam ‘the ideology of a backward culture’ and once proposed an annual ‘headscarf tax’ of €1,000 for anyone wearing Islamic clothing.
Moving to France, Le Pen has tried to soften her party’s image from the time she compared Islamic street prayers to the Nazi occupation of France in 2010. Yet in 2017 she called France “a university for jihadists,” claiming it had become a breeding ground for Islamist terrorism.
NBC News contacted Wilders and Le Pen’s parties for comment on the criticism against them.
The Alternative for Germany party, which is in second place in that country, said in an email that “terms such as ‘right-wing extremist’, ‘Islamophobic’ or ‘nationalist’ are only intended to distract from real problems in this country. .”
It says it “advocates the preservation of democracy” and claims it views German citizens as equal “regardless of one’s ethnic or cultural background.” However, the party said it is “clearly opposed to an Islamist religious practice that targets the free democratic basic order, our laws and the Judeo-Christian and humanist foundations of our culture.”
It is not only Muslims that the AfD has offended. This year, leader Björn Höcke was found guilty of knowingly using a Nazi slogan: “Everything for Germany!” – during a rally in 2021.
These parties often share Trump’s protectionist policies – from supporting trade tariffs to opposing the arming of Ukraine – as well as economic populism, aspects of which are traditionally associated with the left: supporting pensions and social services, increasing some taxes for the rich and lowering them. for the working class, or price controls on rent and food during periods of high inflation.
Their most distinctive platform, however, is not only their opposition to immigration, but also their suggestion that European culture and values be replaced by those of others.
This “ideology of ethnic replacement” and “demographic redefinition”, which the parties are trying to solve with an “expulsion of migrants”, sounds “terrible when you think of the Nazism of the past”, says Nadia Urbinati, professor of politics at the Columbia University.
While mainstream parties often despise these policies and rhetoric, they have been spurred to do so by the electoral threat looming on their right flank. In Britain, the traditionally center-left Labor Party won elections in July while taking a hard line on immigration and championing flag-waving “patriotic” values — something leftists saw as dog-whistle nationalism.
“The ideas of these parties have been legitimized by many mainstream right-wing parties, and both the political and media discourse have shifted to the right,” says Rooduijn of the University of Amsterdam. “What was once considered radical has now become the new normal for many voters.”
In Europe’s multiparty arena, centre-right and centre-left parties tended to dominate the post-war era, with greens, pro-business ‘liberals’ and the far right and left playing smaller roles. But in recent elections, the far right has increasingly overtaken centrist conservatives as the main right-wing force.
Observers once thought the limit on their vote share was around 20%, says Markus Wagner, a professor of politics at the University of Vienna. “But that potential upper limit keeps rising.”
The far right is “no longer second fiddle to the main right-wing party. This really changes the dynamics of how parties compete,” Wagner said. “It seems likely that we are moving towards a world in which the main right-wing party in many countries is an extreme right-wing party.”
The European multi-party system also has an element of optimism for the mainstream, at least in the short term. Centrists can sometimes put together coalitions to keep the far right at bay – even if those parties are individually smaller.
In Austria, most have refused to form a coalition with the FPÖ. The former ruling conservatives, the Austrian People’s Party, said they would only consider doing so if FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl was not involved.
While in France, Le Pen was kept from victory in the June-July parliamentary elections by a complex network of tactical voting between former rivals.
This type of dealmaking comes with risks.
“The question is how to respond to the growing right while remaining consistent with electoral democracy,” Urbinati said. “Disrespecting the will of the voters is a dangerous sign of weakness and arrogance.”
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
