Within Donald Trump’s victory are thousands of small shifts in the way Americans voted.
Nationally, 85.2% of counties voted for Trump. And when you compare how each county voted from the 2020 elections through 2024, the average vote margin in the country shifted to the right by 3.2 percentage points. The key here is that Trump built on his 2020 performance — even in the counties he lost — while Vice President Kamala Harris struggled to match President Joe Biden’s 2020 numbers, underperforming in three of four counties.
This resulted in a reshaping of the electoral map across demographic lines, according to an NBC News analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data and election results.
The analysis showed:
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Asian American communities saw significant shifts to the right: In the Northeast and West, average margins shifted by 6.4 and 6 points, respectively. Trump made waves in the Northeast, growing his vote total by 7%. But the shift is largely due to Harris’ underperformance in both regions.
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The rightward shift of Black voters in the South also outpaced the nation as a whole — and Harris broadly underperformed Biden in counties with large Black populations.
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Areas with a high concentration of high school students had some of the steepest Democratic declines.
NBC News looked at different demographic groups and which counties have the largest percentage of a given group living there, according to the latest Census Bureau survey, which publishes estimates for the period 2018 to 2022 — specifically the roughly 300 counties in the top 10% of each group. For example, Hinds County in Mississippi has one of the highest concentrations of black people in the country, while Alameda County, California, with Asian Americans making up 32% of the population, has one of the highest concentrations of that racial group.
Experts point to turnout and dissatisfaction with the economy as driving the results. However, shifts in voting patterns among certain demographic groups — though these shouldn’t be considered the focus — are also visible, says Ken Kollman, a professor of political science at the University of Michigan.
“The biggest story is the relatively low turnout for Harris in key Democratic places compared to Biden in 2020,” Kollman said. “It’s a rise story.”
Kollman pointed to exit polls showing a shift among Hispanic men, adding that black men may have voted more for Trump or not turned out for Harris.
Asian American voters in both the Northeast and West shifted to Trump, with experts suggesting the economy was a priority for the electorate.
In California, Merced County — with one of the highest Asian American populations in the country — went for Trump, despite voters throwing their collective weight behind Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020.
A major driver of Merced’s 17-point shift to the right was a smaller vote total for Harris, who received 28% fewer votes than Biden in 2020. Meanwhile, Trump slightly improved his performance in 2020.
Riverside, another California county where Asian Americans have a strong representation, also sided with the Republican Party in a photo-finish race that was decided by a few thousand votes.
However, the math in Riverside looked different than in Merced. The number of votes for both candidates increased compared to the previous election cycle. But while Harris’ vote grew by 21%, it was no match for Trump’s nearly 50% improvement.
When it came to education, Trump improved his margin in counties with significant populations of both high school diploma holders and advanced degree recipients, more than the national median.
However, the driving forces behind both tended to diverge. In all counties where high school graduates had a strong representation, Trump’s voting numbers held steady, while Harris underperformed and lost a larger share of Biden’s 2020 coalition than any other education category.
But in the counties with the largest share of advanced degree holders, Trump actually gained votes, while Harris lost them.
An example of this is Nassau County, New York, which voted Republican for the first time in more than three decades. Nassau’s voters, densely populated with high earners and advanced degree holders, had not supported Republicans for president since George HW Bush in 1988.
While Trump grew his vote by 11%, his victory was also due to Harris losing 16% of Biden’s 2020 vote.
Meanwhile, inflationary pressures, among other financial problems, have also influenced voters’ decisions. In counties with high child care and housing costs, the electorate also turned to Trump.
Below, see the data used in the full analysis and how the margins between demographic groups shifted:
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
