There’s probably no market that gets as much attention as the NFL season win totals.
First of all, it’s the NFL. We provide care all year round. And BetMGM announced the season win totals for all 32 teams on Wednesday, 162 days before the Kansas City Chiefs host the NFL’s first game of the 2024 regular season. That’s a lot of time to decide if 11.5 is a reasonable number for the San Francisco 49ers this season. A lot will also change between now and September, especially during the NFL Draft.
At first glance, some of the opening songs seemed a little strange. Here are the five season win totals at BetMGM that were the most curious:
You may have heard that the Chargers have a new coach.
Jim Harbaugh is back after a successful run at Michigan, and apparently oddsmakers think this will fix everything for the Chargers. Last season Los Angeles was 5-12, and this season they would have to be four games better to surpass the total.
Harbaugh is an upgrade, but there are questions. He hasn’t coached in the NFL since 2014, which is a long time in NFL years. There will be some adjustment. The Chargers also had a rough offseason due to the salary cap, losing players like Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. It’s already a squad that has been seriously underperforming for years, and perhaps we’ve simply overestimated their talent.
It’s possible that Harbaugh will fix everything and the Chargers will be a winning team right away. However, expecting such a jump is a bit much.
There really is no trust in Deshaun Watson.
Last season the Browns were 11-6 and that was because Joe Flacco, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, PJ Walker and Jeff Driskel combined for 11 starts. Sure, Flacco played well off his bench, but let’s not get carried away. Cleveland had a good team around the quarterback. The Browns didn’t suffer huge losses in free agency. Most of the same 11-win team returns, Watson comes back and is an upgrade (yes, Flacco was a great story, but come on) and maybe even get Nick Chubb back from a horrible knee injury.
The AFC North is tough and maybe Watson has really become a problem, but it would be a surprise if the Browns are 8-9 or worse.
This one is understandable. The Falcons have won seven games each of the last three seasons, and that was with terrible quarterback play. Atlanta paid Kirk Cousins ​​$180 million to fix that.
And in theory, moving from Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke to Cousins ​​should be worth three wins. Replacing Arthur Smith with Raheem Morris should ensure that Atlanta’s best offensive players are no longer ignored. That’s good too. But it’s not like it’s a lock.
Coming off a torn Achilles tendon, Cousins ​​is turning 36 and finds himself in a new situation. Some struggles wouldn’t be that surprising. It’s also a Falcons team that hasn’t won more than seven games in a season since 2017. Expecting ten wins is not unreasonable, but it is also not a guarantee.
Another team with an aging quarterback dealing with an Achilles injury. Except Aaron Rodgers is even older than Kirk Cousins. He will be 41 next season. That’s an era in which almost all non-Tom Brady quarterbacks have already hit the wall. Maybe Rodgers overcomes a serious injury and plays more like Brady than any other quarterback his age in NFL history, but that’s a lot to ask.
Also, were all of the Jets’ problems last season due to the quarterback? Many teams had backup quarterbacks last season and were much more competitive than the Jets. There may be some organizational issues that a 41-year-old Rodgers can’t solve. Furthermore, the AFC East is not the easiest division to reach ten wins in. The Jets had a solid offseason and maybe Rodgers is right back to his normal form, but it’s possible New York just isn’t a 10-win team.
Two seasons ago, the Cowboys’ win total was 10.5 and most bettors were crazy about the under after some offseason losses. Dallas won twelve games. Last season, after a lot of negativity in the offseason, the Cowboys’ total opened at 9.5. Dallas won twelve games.
This offseason saw a lot of negativity – this wasn’t an “all-in” offseason, the Cowboys lost big in free agency, but didn’t fire Mike McCarthy like most fans wanted – and yet the Cowboys’ win total is 10.5? Too bad for anyone who wants to get some value on 9.5.
Dallas is still one of the best teams in the NFL and going back to 11 wins is a distinct possibility. It’s just interesting to see the Cowboys win 10.5 times after the offseason produced nothing but negative headlines.
