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Democrats hoped that Vice President Harris could win the White House through the blue wall.
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But once again, Donald Trump made an impression in three key states and put them in the Republican column.
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Harris would have secured the presidency if she had won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Shortly after Vice President Kamala Harris launched her presidential campaign, one of her first stops was in West Allis, Wisconsin. The Milwaukee suburb was a small piece of the electoral puzzle in a state where elections are decided by the narrowest of margins.
Harris made repeated stops in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania during her campaign. These states were part of the “blue wall,” or the series of states that Democratic presidential candidates all won between 1992 and 2012.
In 2016, Donald Trump broke through that wall, winning all three states and blocking former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton from entering the White House. President Joe Biden won all three states in 2020 with Harris as his vice presidential running mate.
This year, Harris was left out. Trump won all three and once again secured the Oval Office.
This is why Harris ultimately faltered in the trio of blue wall states.
Walking a difficult path
In the end, Harris lost Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by narrow margins.
To secure the presidency, candidates must win at least 270 Electoral College votes, and Harris won 226 to Trump’s 312. She fell 44 electoral votes short of what she could have earned if she had won Michigan (15 votes), Pennsylvania (19 votes). ), and Wisconsin (10 votes).
Trump defeated Harris in Michigan by 1.4 points (49.7% to 48.3%). According to the latest results, the president-elect won Pennsylvania by 2.1 points (50.6% to 48.5%). And in Wisconsin, Trump defeated Harris by a margin of 0.9 points (49.7% to 48.8%).
These weren’t blowouts, but even a small shift was enough to give Trump the election.
Furthermore, Harris has not won any other major swing states this year, making it mathematically impossible for her to reach 270 electoral votes after the blue wall fell and Republican-leaning states stayed true to form.
Harris’ suburban performance wasn’t strong enough
Democrats went into the election hoping to make historic gains with suburban voters. The party believed those voters would continue to reject Trump’s political brand, as they did in 2018, 2020 and 2022.
But unlike 2020, when Biden won suburban voters nationally by two points (50% to 48%), this year Trump won suburban voters by four points (51% to 47%), according to exit polls conducted by Edison Research.
In the blue wall, Harris performed well in many key counties, including Oakland County, just outside Detroit; Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, a prosperous county bordering Philadelphia; and Dane County, which includes the Wisconsin capital of Madison and surrounding areas.
But it wasn’t enough to offset Trump’s strength in rural and suburban areas, as well as his better-than-expected retention of support in critical areas like Waukesha County, Wisconsin, a suburban jurisdiction near Milwaukee, and Bucks County, Pennsylvania , a crucial region. swing county near philadelphia. Harris also had to overcome Trump’s larger vote share among minority voters — particularly among black men and Latinos — which eroded her margins in many cities.
For example, Harris won Oakland County by 10 points. But Biden won by 14 points in 2020. In a populous county full of the kind of college-educated independents and disaffected Republicans the Harris campaign targeted, the vice president’s margins needed to be higher to match Trump’s gains in places like Saginaw County. , Michigan – a politically competitive jurisdiction that he won this year after losing it to Biden four years ago.
Harris was also hurt by anger over Biden’s handling of the Gaza conflict. Many Arab-American voters in Dearborn – a city just outside Detroit – switched to Trump.
The unions were not unanimously behind Harris
After Biden stepped aside as Democratic presidential candidate at the end of July, Harris was tasked with running a 107-day campaign. This meant broadening her profile and forging relationships with leaders accustomed to the president.
Although Harris was enthusiastically supported by numerous public sector union leaders and much of their membership, she also faced non-support from the Teamsters and the International Association of Fire Fighters. Within this last group of unions, many rank-and-file members supported Trump, despite Biden’s strength among many of these members just four years ago.
Organized labor is crucial for Democrats in the blue wall, and Harris’ support was not deep enough to overshadow Trump’s advance.
In Wisconsin, Trump won 51% of union households, compared to Harris’ 49%, according to Edison Research.
Harris won union households in both Michigan (58% to 40%) and Pennsylvania (54% to 45%), but it still wasn’t enough to win those states.
Harris tried to frame her economic message around the needs of working- and middle-class Americans — including union workers — but Trump had an advantage on the issue that lasted until Election Day.
According to CNN’s exit polls, the economy was the most important issue for 32% of voters, and those voters broke for Trump by an overwhelming margin of 80% to 19%.
Read the original article on Business Insider
