Let’s establish one thing up front. For all the ink spilled on the glittering Dodgers, for all the fun the defending champion Rangers are, for all the young talent bouncing around in Baltimore, for all the established stars hanging their hats in Houston, the best offense in baseball is still the Braves . Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
And just imagine what could happen if Ronald Acuña Jr. really starts.
First a nod to the statistics sheet. Atlanta’s offense currently ranks first in a whole bunch of things. All slash stats, for starters (.302/.366/.491) and OPS (that’s how addition works). Runs per game, a juicy 6.44 per start. There is some luck involved, as the Braves have a team .367 BABIP. Yes, that’s the first one too. But these guys can destroy your ERA.
The Braves have five hitters in the top 100 of 5×5 leagues: Marcell Ozuna (a draft-day steal, he is currently the No. 2 hitter in bench value), Ozzie Albies, Acuña, Austin Riley and Matt Olson. Michael Harris isn’t off to a bad start either, although he’s just outside the top 100. Harris is likely the buy-low target on this roster.
If you’re going to nitpick, you can start with Acuna, who doesn’t have a homer yet. That said, he walks enough (eight bags) and crosses home plate enough (16 runs). His early sliders on Baseball Savant are on foot by his standards, but there is no reactionary move to be made with him.
Albies is also a buzzkill right now, as he hit the IL this week with a toe injury. But it doesn’t require surgery, and Albies might be back in two to three weeks. Optimism about injuries is generally not my problem, but this sounds like a short-term setback.
If you want a path to this massive offense, Orlando Arcia (24% selected) and Jarred Kelenic (32% selected) are your two options. Arcia will never be a star, but last year he hit a credible .264 with 17 home runs in 139 games. His average should be around mid-range, and he’ll likely hit double-digit home runs again. He is playable.
Kelenic’s upside is still interesting, even if he’s currently stuck in a strongside platoon, the Braves aren’t messing around with this; when the opponent starts with the left, Kelenic sits down and Adam Duvall takes a bat. The good news is that Kelenic is crushing righties when he plays: .412/.474/.500.
Of course, Kelenic also has a downside. He hasn’t hit a home run yet. His Statcast data isn’t a good start: his expected average is just .276, and he still has mediocre plate discipline stats. He hasn’t stolen a base yet. And the Braves keep Kelenic tucked in the bottom third of the order; it’s hard to see that changing this year given the depth of the roster.
Unfortunately, perhaps the most useful thing about the Atlanta offense is how we handle it in return for It. I won’t allow a non-elite pitcher to start against these guys. Sure, Hunter Brown was fine on Tuesday, but that’s not how I operate. Too many crooked numbers in Cobb County.
You wouldn’t win bar bets if the Braves led the Majors in runs. But you could drink for free if you posted your friends in second place in baseball for the first few weeks. The Brewers currently rank second in most major categories: runs per game, average, OBP, slugging. The Brewers also rank third in stolen bases (23), having been caught only four times. It was a surprisingly nice team.
Like Atlanta with Albies, Milwaukee just lost one of its stars: Christian Yelich. He’s having lower back pain, although he might be back in a week. But the Brew Crew has plenty of exciting hitters to focus on while Yelich recovers.
William Contreras is off to a monster start (.375-16-4-17-1), the No. 3 hitter in 5×5 value. This looks like a career year at age 26. He is also an excellent defender. That’s why we try to be patient when drafting fantasy catchers.
Brice Turang was an early hit from the waiver wire – you have to attack the wire early in every new season – he stole eight quick bases and hit a tidy .327. Willy Adames is healthy again and has erased the bad vibes from last year. He is hitting .302 with three home runs. Jackson Chourio is hitting just .241, but category juice (three home runs, three steals) always pays the fantasy bills. Rhys Hoskins has three home runs in his comeback season.
It’s a good thing the Crew is piling up the runs, because the pitching staff is a concern. Freddy Peralta is a monster, but the rest of the rotation is a streamer consideration at best. Both presumed temporary closers (Abner Uribe, Joel Payamps) have ERAs above 5. The team is still hoping Devin Williams can return around the All-Star break; he has two stress fractures in his back.
If you need to make a pick on this staff, Colin Rea (7% rostered) makes the most sense. He was solid in all three innings (2.70/1.20), and he’s been a solid source of ratio since joining the Brewers. NL Central has some soft landings; I’m not afraid of the Cardinals this weekend. That said, Rea’s under-the-hood isn’t all that fun. His FIP currently stands at 4.21.
Main man Sal Frelick could be worth a look if you’re short on a midweek schedule. He doesn’t offer much power, but he has scored eleven runs, stolen three bases, and has a solid .397 OBP. You like a frontman who is tied to a strong attack. And there’s nothing wrong with chasing a little volume either.
