Despite a rather tumultuous pair of games against Idaho and Boise State (37-34) to open the season, Oregon (13-0) rolled through their Big Ten schedule to finish the regular season as the B10 Conference Champions in their first campaign. The Ducks’ second-ranked SP+ offense ranks in the Top 10 nationally in success rate, EPA/play and negative play percentage. Despite brutal efficiency metrics, Oregon isn’t as explosive as their 2023 version, ranking 81st in passes of 20+ yards (16%) and 110th in yards per successful rush (8.7). Defensively, their secondary is excellent: they rank 5th in passing percentage allowed (33.5%) and 9th in EPA/dropback. However, OU was somewhat vulnerable, ranking 89th in EPA/rush and 81st in yards per successful rush.
Ohio State’s lethal offense (10-2) ranks in the top 10 on each side of the ball in passing percentage, EPA/play and marginal efficiency. The main weaknesses on offense are the Ohio State O-line’s ability to handle extra rushers, ranking 78th with a blitz down sack rate of 9.2%, and a roughly 10.1% blow run block percentage that ranks 94th nationally. Defensively, OSU is elite and ranks first overall in FBS according to SP+. The Buckeyes’ secondary faces the fifth-fewest deep passes in the country, with only 9.4% of passes occurring more than 20 yards downfield. OSU’s tenacious defensive line ranks fifth nationally with a 43.4% pressure rate and second with a sharp 9.8% sack rate, so opposing quarterbacks rarely had enough time to sit back and waiting for deep routes to develop. The Buckeyes allow a slightly increased completion percentage of 60.1% (63rd), but still rank third in EPA/dropback, so allowing short completions hasn’t hurt them.
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Game details and how to watch the Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State
· Date: Wednesday January 1, 2025
· Time: 5:00 PM EST
· Location: Rose Bowl
· City: Pasadena, CA
· TV/streaming: ESPN
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Game odds for the Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State:
*opportunities courtesy of BetMGM
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Moneyline: Ohio State (-140), Oregon (+115)
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Spread: Ohio State (-2.5)
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Top/Bottom: 54.5 points
The spread opened Oregon -1.5 in early trading, but quickly crossed the line and is now trading at a consensus line of -2.5. The OSU moneyline currently shows a best price of -132, while Oregon is currently quite solid at +115. The initial game total of 53.5 increases steadily, reaching 55.5 in some places.
NBC Sportsbook Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“The game total is set at 54.5 points, while Oregon’s team total is a very reasonable 26.5 points. Their last game ended 32-31 and Oregon scored at least 31 points in 11 of their last 12 games, with the lone exception being a 16-13 loss to @Wisconsin. I think Oregon comfortably clears their team total of 26.5 in a competitive back-and-forth game.
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Quarterback matchup for the Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State
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Oregon: Dillon Gabriel is in the midst of his sixth collegiate campaign and has compiled an impressive 18,430 passing yards and a 153-to-32 ratio during his standout career. He completes 72.6% of his throws (3rd nationally) for 8.7 YPA and a 28-to-6 ratio for the still-undefeated Ducks, but his 6.9 ADOT is the lowest average target depth among 99 qualifying signal callers. The emphasis on short-yardage passing explains Oregon’s unusually low 8.7 yards per successful rush, which ranks 110th in FBS. Oregon currently has a bright completion percentage of 73.2% (2nd in FBS).
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State of Ohio: Will Howard spent his first four collegiate seasons running the Kansas State offense before transferring to Columbus this offseason. The former Wildcat now leads OSU’s dominant offense, outscoring opponents by an average of 26.8 points per game, which is the highest win differential in the country. He is completing a whopping 72.9% of his throws (2nd in FBS) and is working on future first-round NFL Draft wideouts in Emeka Egbuka and freshman Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes’ ruthlessly efficient passing attack ranks third in success rate (53.7%) and seventh in yards per dropback (8.2), despite completing only 9.9% of their passes over 20 throwing yards further down the field (123rd). Howard’s PFF grade of 84.2 ranks 13th among power conference signal callers and represents the best mark of his five-year career, with a previous high of 72.7.
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State – Trends and Statistics
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Oregon’s secondary has been at its best when the game is on the line, with just two first downs on 28 targets in close and late situations, the lowest completion percentage allowed among P4 programs.
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Oregon has tackled opponents for a loss on 20 of 102 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season, 16th best in FBS.
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Oregon has allowed a completion rate of just 33% on 3rd and short this season, tops in the Big Ten.
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Oregon WRs have caught 189 of 247 passes this season, the highest percentage among power conference teams.
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Oregon is 2-5 (.286) against the spread when converting fewer than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season, 11th worst among Power Conference Teams. (Average: .450)
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Oregon is 15-7 (.652) against the spread when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season, 32nd best in FBS. (Average: .563)
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Ohio State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.5% ​​of 344 attempts this season, ranking 28th among FBS offenses. Oregon’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.9% of attempts this season, 23rd best among FBS defenses.
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Ohio State’s QBs have thrown for 3,369 passing yards through 13 games this season, 32nd best among FBS teams. Oregon’s defense has allowed just 175.7 passing yards per game this season, third-best among Big Ten defenses.
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TreVeyon Henderson has rushed for 10 or more yards on 29 of his 118 carries this season, best among FBS running backs. He is also averaging 8.6 yards per scrimmage touch in the 4th quarter, which leads the nation.
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Ohio State opponents have averaged 54.2 pass attempts per TD (best in FBS) since the 2023 season.
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Ohio State has not tackled any opponents for a loss on any of 33 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season, finishing tied for worst among Power Conference Teams with Rutgers (0-30).
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Ohio State is 7-8 (.412) against the spread when they have a turnover margin within any of their opponents since the 2023 season, the 36th worst in FBS. (Average: .481)
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Games involving the Buckeyes have gone down as favorites in 72% of their games since the 2023 season, 4th best among Power Conference Teams. (Average: 50%)
Most bets (tickets)
1. Notre Dame-Georgia
2. Penn State-Boise State
3. State of Texas-Arizona
4. Ohio State-Oregon
Most Betting Teams (Tickets)
1. Georgia -1.5
2. Penn State -10.5
3. Oregon+2.5
4.Texas -13.5
Most Betting Teams (handle)
1. Georgia -1.5
2. Penn State -10.5
3.Texas -13.5
4. Ohio State -2.5
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