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Kamala Harris quickly convinced Democrats to endorse her nomination after Joe Biden withdrew from the race.
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Support for Harris surpassed that for Biden over the past month.
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But a recently released Times/Siena poll reminds us that the 2024 race remains uncertain.
Vice President Kamala Harris has stunned Democrats as the party’s new presidential nominee.
After President Joe Biden stepped down as the presumptive nominee in July, the party quickly closed in on her, and any concerns anyone had about her lackluster 2020 presidential campaign were largely dispelled.
Her popularity has soared among likely voters. She quickly rallied the Democratic base and has seen a surge in support among independents, helping her gain a lead in swing state polls in recent weeks. And last week, Harris’ campaign announced that she had raised $361 million in August alone — nearly triple the $130 million that former President Donald Trump raised in the same month.
Still, in a reminder of how volatile American elections can be, a recently released New York Times/Siena College poll found Trump with a one-point lead over Harris among likely voters. The poll could indicate that Harris’ momentum has stalled or that it’s an outlier. More polling in the coming days will tell more, as will Tuesday’s presidential debate.
What is certain is that many of the complexities of the 2024 race never went away after Biden left the race, which is why the contest remains a nail-biter at this late stage.
A race within the margin of error
While a series of polls show Harris ahead in states like Michigan and Wisconsin, the lead is generally in the single digits and within the margin of error.
The Times’ latest national poll found that Trump has 48% of likely voters supporting him as president, while Harris has 47% support.
The result is unchanged from the Times’ national survey in July.
In the latest Times poll, several key figures stand out.
Harris saw majority support among voters under 45. She performed best among voters aged 30 to 44, winning that group by nine points (51% to 42%). Meanwhile, Trump led among Gen X and voters 65 and older by margins within 10 points.
For Harris, turnout among the youngest voters will be critical as she seeks to win traditional swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and hold on to Sun Belt battlegrounds like Arizona and Nevada. Harris’ appeal to young voters is a key reason she’s been able to put North Carolina back in play for Democrats, a far cry from three months ago, when Biden struggled there.
A Times poll found Harris with a 10-point lead among suburban voters (52% to 42%), a key sign of support that could make a big difference if she can widen her lead over her Republican rival.
Despite Trump’s lead in the Times poll, the former president’s suburban woes may be one of the biggest threats to his campaign. It would likely hurt his chances of winning a key state like Pennsylvania if Harris gains momentum closer to the election.
Voters want to know more about Harris
The presidential debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia may be Harris’ most important opportunity to reach voters who are still undecided about who to support at the top of the ticket.
In the Times survey, 27% of likely voters said they “want to know more” about Harris. Meanwhile, just 9% of likely voters expressed a similar sentiment about Trump.
Of voters who said they wanted to know more about Harris, nearly 7 in 10 said they wanted to hear more about the vice president’s policies and plans. Another 10% said they wanted to know “everything” about Harris.
So Trump actually has a small lead over a candidate who is still a blank slate for a significant portion of voters.
The Democratic National Convention in Chicago was a first step for Harris to emerge from the shadows and onto the national stage. But the debate in Philadelphia will give her time to articulate her views on what remains the biggest issue of the election: the economy.
In the latest Times poll, Trump held a 13-point lead (55% to 42%) over Harris when asked who would be best equipped to handle the economy.
Trump, who has consistently criticized Democrats over the issue, has made it a centerpiece of his campaign.
Harris has in recent weeks begun to erode Trump’s lead on this issue, which had dogged Biden as the candidate. Other surveys, including a Financial Times-Michigan Ross poll released last month, showed Harris with a one-point lead (42% to 41%) over Trump on economic issues among registered voters.
This close result is merely a reflection of the competitive nature of the race, a dynamic that is likely to remain the same until November.
Read the original article on Business Insider
