Tommy John has had to endure the dreaded wait many times since his Baseball Hall of Fame debut in 1995.
The former Dodgers left-hander – the first player to undergo what is now known as Tommy John surgery – remained eligible until 2009, but never received more than 31.7% of the 75% needed for election. John then shuffled through expansion-era and modern baseball ballots twice apiece, only to be rejected by the voting boards.
On Sunday at 4:30 PM, John will hear the latest result after a new vote.
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“If I had a say, I would vote for me,” John said in a telephone interview from his home in Florida on Friday. “But I don’t do that.”
John, along with Steve Garvey – a former Dodgers first baseman and 1974 National League Most Valuable Player – are two of eight candidates on the Classic Baseball Era ballot, which elects overlooked players from previous generations. John and Garvey wore Dodger Blue together from 1972 to 1978.
The Historical Overview Committee, appointed by the Baseball Writers of America Assn., compiles the Classic Baseball Era ballot of players whose greatest achievements occurred before 1980. Eligible players must have played 10 or more seasons.
Dr. Frank Jobe first performed the left-handed elbow surgery on John in 1974, giving birth to the ligament replacement procedure that is common today. The Hall of Fame honored Jobe and John together at the induction ceremony in 2013.
“I had the right doctor at the right time and I was in the right place,” John said. “I never threw and missed a start after I came back.”
While the now 81-year-old may be best known for the surgery, John spent 26 seasons in the majors, tying a record until Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan reached his 27th season. A four-time All-Star, John compiled a 288-231 record with a 3.34 earned run average, 2,245 strikeouts and 61.6 wins above replacement (WAR) according to Baseball Reference, with some of his best seasons coming at Chavez Ravine came. .
“Twenty-six years, 288 wins and [an MLB-record] There are no decisions,” John said when asked how the committee should value career longevity. “Your arm was in good shape, and you must be doing something right or you wouldn’t be going out there every five days.”
Where John may struggle with voters, as he has in recent years, is with strikeouts and wins above replacement – he lags behind most previous pitching inductees of his era.
Jay Jaffe, the author of “The Cooperstown Casebook,” said the 3,000 strikeout mark is often tied to the 300-win milestone, making John’s candidacy less likely since he has neither.
“Maybe some of that depends on the question: How much credit does Tommy John deserve compared to Dr. Frank Jobe?” said Jaffe, who has written about the Hall of Fame since 2001 and is a senior baseball writer at FanGraphs. “The man who actually had the technical expertise and imagination to carry out the operation.”
Jaffe added that while he seeks to see John denied election, he hopes that if John is elected, it will be done while he is still alive to participate in the induction ceremony.
“I’ve kept the arguments for over 20 years,” Jaffe said. ‘I’d rather he come in while he’s still here.
On the other hand, Garvey is closer to a sure no, Jaffe said.
Garvey, who last lost his run for a U.S. Senate seat, was a 10-time All-Star who hit .294 and 272 home runs in 19 seasons. He was a 1981 World Series champion and played in the legendary infield from 1973 to 1981 alongside Ron Cey, Davey Lopes and Bill Russell.
“There is a real mess in the way Garvey was traditionally valued in his time and how we view him now,” said Jaffe, the inventor of JAWS, a commonly used “victory above replacement” metric for evaluating the Hall of Fame -dignity. “After watching dozens and dozens of other very good first basemen who followed in this wake who were more valuable … I’m pretty dismissive of him as a candidate.”
However, if John had his way, he would like to see himself and his former teammate anchored in Cooperstown on Sunday.
“He was an excellent teammate,” John said of Garvey. “That would suit me just fine.”
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This story originally appeared in the Los Angeles Times.
