Donald Trump holds a slight lead over Kamala Harris in three crucial Sun Belt states, according to a new New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday.
The former president now holds a 5 percentage point lead in Arizona, at 50 percent to Harris’ 45 percent, and leads Georgia by 4 percentage points. Both leads are within the margin of sampling error. In North Carolina, the candidates are neck and neck, with Trump at 49 percent to Harris’ 47 percent.
The results reverse August Times/Siena polls in Arizona and North Carolina, which showed Harris leading by the same margins as Trump now, while he remained ahead in Georgia. By Labor Day, the polling averages in all three states were even narrower.
Harris still outperforms President Joe Biden in the May Times/Siena poll, when Trump led Biden by 8 and 9 percentage points, respectively, in Georgia and Arizona. That poll did not include North Carolina.
Trump’s slight momentum doesn’t appear to have translated to Republicans at the ballot box, according to Monday’s polls. In the Arizona Senate race, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake by 6 percentage points. In North Carolina, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein leads 47 percent to 37 percent over Republican Mark Robinson. The poll was conducted largely before reports emerged that Robinson had posted racy comments on a pornography website — allegations he denies.
The New York Times/Siena College poll was conducted Sept. 17-21, interviewing 713 voters in Arizona, 682 voters in Georgia and 682 voters in North Carolina. The polls have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points in Arizona, plus or minus 4.6 percentage points in Georgia and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points in North Carolina.
