Hi there.
Well, that was interesting, wasn’t it? The election was going pretty normally, but then we had a big week that changed the shape of the race and the stakes.
First, Joe Biden squandered his chance to prove he has the vitality, energy and fitness for a second term in the White House with a debate performance that only underscored concerns that he is too old for the job.
As people were digesting the debate debacle, the Supreme Court announced that presidents have broad immunity from criminal prosecution for almost anything they do in office. It jeopardized Trump’s recent conviction and his other legal cases — and could embolden Trump to act without restraint if he wins a second term.
Let’s take a look at all of that (gulp), but first, let’s look at what else happened during the election.
This is what you need to know
1. Trump sentencing postponed
The former president was scheduled to be sentenced on July 11 after he was found guilty on 34 counts of falsifying corporate records to conceal hush-money payments to Stormy Daniels. But after that Supreme Court decision, his sentencing has been delayed until September 18, as the judge in the case decides whether Trump has immunity that could overturn the conviction.
2. Trump is coming up with younger voters
Trump has built a lead over Biden among young voters, according to a poll by AtlasIntel. The former president holds a 15-point lead over the incumbent among 18- to 29-year-olds, according to the survey, conducted by one of the most accurate pollsters in the 2020 election. The poll was conducted between June 26 and 28, so some people were surveyed after the debate. A handful of other polls paint a mixed picture, with some showing Biden’s support declining since the debate, others holding it more or less steady.
3. The money is flowing in
Biden’s campaign and the Democratic National Committee raised $264 million in the second quarter of 2024, including $127 million in June, which should give the president some cheer. Trump, however, took in $331 million — about 72% of the $454 million he owes and can’t pay in a civil fraud lawsuit he settled earlier this year.
Could Biden have simply crowned Trump king?
On Monday, the Supreme Court ruled in a case that horrified many Americans: it held that U.S. presidents are entitled to broad immunity from prosecution for actions committed in office.
The 6-3 ruling by the court’s conservative majority, three of whom were nominated by Trump, means that some charges related to Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election will likely not go forward.
The ruling that presidents have “absolute immunity” for actions that fall within the scope of the office’s “core constitutional powers” has some concerned about what Trump, who has said he would prosecute political opponents if re-elected, might do in a second term.
Most of the reaction to the decision was scathing. Sonia Sotomayor, one of the liberal Supreme Court justices who opposed the ruling, said the decision would make a president “a king above the law.”
While Trump, who has been obsessed with the royal family for decades (he apparently tried to court Princess Diana, who subsequently told a friend that the then-future president gave her “the creeps”) may be quite happy with that characterization, the timing was not kind to Trump’s critics.
The decision underscored the significance of Biden’s lackluster debate performance, in which the president spent much of his 90 minutes onstage staring off into space, mouth open, like a drunk reading a menu at a kebab shop. When Biden spoke, his voice trembled and he sometimes seemed to lose his train of thought.
A series of polls in recent days have shed light on how Biden’s performance has been perceived, though a truly comprehensive national poll has yet to be released. A Yahoo News/YouGov survey found that 60% of Americans believe he is “not fit to serve another term as president,” while among Democratic voters, 41% said Biden should not be the nominee in November, according to a USA Today/Suffolk University poll.
The urgency has only grown in the wake of that high court decision. On Tuesday, Reuters reported that 25 Democratic members of the House of Representatives are ready to call on Biden to resign if he continues to look shaky, and two Democratic members of Congress — both in swing districts — have said they believe Biden will lose to Trump in November. Prominent news organizations, including the New York Times, have called for Biden to be replaced, as have numerous experts. Biden has said nothing to indicate he will resign, and plans to meet with Democratic governors today to drum up support.
Much of this has to do with what that Supreme Court decision could mean for a Trump presidency. Trump has repeatedly told us what he will do in a second term: He has said he will subject Liz Cheney, one of the few Republicans critical of him, to a “televised military tribunal” on uncertain charges, and has said he will act as a dictator on “day one” of his presidency.
In June, Trump said that if elected, he “has every right to go after Joe Biden and his family” — and the Supreme Court essentially gave him the green light to do that and more.
In a dissenting opinion on the court’s decision, Justice Sotomayer wrote that the ruling means that whenever a president “uses his official powers in any manner, he will now, under the majority’s reasoning, be immune from criminal prosecution.”
“Does the Navy Seal Team 6 order the assassination of a political rival?” Sotomayer wrote.
“Immune.”
It’s serious, in other words. Democrats are in the biggest crisis of this election, just as the stakes have increased immeasurably.
Lie of the week
In last week’s debate, Donald Trump falsely claimed that Democrats “will take the life of a child in the eighth month, the ninth month, and even after birth,” specifically calling out the former Virginia governor for comments about later-term abortions.
Ralph Northam, then the Democratic governor of Virginia, gave an answer in a 2019 interview that Trump and other Republicans have seized on, about what would happen if a baby was born with severe deformities. Northam never said a baby would be killed after birth, and Virginia news outlet 13NewsNow debunked Trump’s debate claims about Northam’s comments.
To be clear, if a child is killed after it is born, it is murder or infanticide. This is illegal in all US states (and everywhere else in the world). Democrats are not pushing policies to kill babies after they are born.
Later-term abortions, often referred to by Republicans as “late-term” abortions, though the term is nonspecific and confusing, are rare. Less than 1 percent of abortions in the U.S. are performed at or after 21 weeks of pregnancy, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). This is often due to fetal abnormalities that are not detected until later in pregnancy.
– Rachel Leingang, Misinformation Reporter
Milwaukee prepares for influx of Republicans
In less than two weeks, Milwaukee will temporarily become the center of the American political universe when Republicans open their national convention at the Fiserv Forum in downtown.
The GOP did well to choose Wisconsin’s largest city as the site of its first real political convention since 2016. The state has served as a turning point in several presidential elections, including Joe Biden’s victory in 2020 and Trump’s triumph four years earlier.
The Fiserv Forum, best known as the home of the NBA team Milwaukee Bucks, is now draped in a banner welcoming delegates to the convention. Barriers are set up around the area, waiting to be deployed to close off roads. Residents are paying close attention to the outline of the safety zone, which threatens to block traffic and disrupt the lives of those in and around the zone.
Milwaukee is a Democratic stronghold in a purple state and will likely vote for Biden again. With rural Wisconsin leaning Trump, the real question is how the state’s suburbs will swing. Democrats have done well there in recent elections, but all signs point to this being an election like few others.
– Chris Stein is the US politics liveblogger for Guardian US
Worst week
This guy just can’t get lucky. Rudy Giuliani, Trump’s former lawyer, hair dye fanatic and all-around oddball, lost his license to practice law in New York on Tuesday. It comes after he was suspended from New York radio station WABC in May after he used his show to spread conspiracy theories about the 2020 election. It also comes after Giuliani declared bankruptcy in December after a court ordered him to pay nearly $150 million to two election workers he defamed. Whew.
