BARI, Italy — For all the ambitious plans that president Joe Biden and its counterparts unfolded at the summit meeting that ended Saturday, the cold reality is that many of the leaders may not stay in office long enough to see them mature.
A populist, far-right movement sweeping through Europe and the US threatens to dethrone Biden and some of his closest allies, jeopardizing Ukrainian defense deals struck in recent days.
The traditional ‘family photo’, taken at the summit of the Group of Seven (G7) of the richest democracies, largely portrays an embattled group of world leaders who have fallen out of step with some of their voters. Successors would be free to take much of what they produced in southern Italy and tear it up as they saw fit.
According to NBC News polls in April, Biden’s approval rating is in the low 40s and he’s even running with former President Donald Trump. If he is defeated in November, Ukraine will lose its most valuable partner in preventing Russian President Vladimir Putin from overrunning the country.
Emmanuel Macron, France’s centrist president, recently called early elections, raising the prospect that the far right would gain control of the French legislature and force him into a power-sharing arrangement.
Right-wing forces made gains in Germany in this month’s European elections, putting the chancellorship of moderate leader Olaf Scholz in doubt.
“This is the last time this group will meet with these leaders in this configuration,” Josh Lipsky, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center, said ahead of the summit. “It all reflects a sense of urgency and commitment around this G7. And it has a feeling to me [the] last chance to do something big before things can change significantly.
The vulnerability of the G7 leadership was not something its members wanted to advertise. A senior Biden administration official told reporters that “our elections” were not discussed in meetings. But the global elections nevertheless loomed over events.
A much-touted 10-year U.S.-Ukraine security pact unveiled Thursday could potentially shrink to a seven-month alliance depending on how the 2024 presidential election goes.
Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed the pact with flowers on Thursday evening before their joint press conference. In front of television cameras, they each signed a document and then gave it to the other person across the table for signature.
However, another president would be free to terminate the partnership if he so wishes. The US or Ukraine can simply withdraw from the deal by notifying the other, according to the terms of the pact.
That probably won’t happen if Biden wins, but Trump is more of a wild card. He has said that if elected he would end the war between Ukraine and Russia within 24 hours.
Zelenskyy has said he doubts that is possible. Even Trump’s former vice president, Mike Pence, has said the only way his old boss could do that would be to give in to Putin.
The leaders of the G7 are aware of the election calendar. Some agreements seemed intended to make foreign policy ‘Trump-proof’ in case Biden loses.
In another deal unveiled at the summit, leaders announced they would lend Ukraine $50 billion to help fight Russia and rebuild the country. The money will go to Ukraine this year, backed by about $300 billion in frozen Russian assets, and the U.S. is prepared to fork over the full amount of the loan if necessary, Biden administration officials said.
The timing is important. If Trump wins, he won’t take office until January 20, 2025, meaning Ukraine will have the money in its pocket before Trump takes office.
Still, given the vast powers of the presidency, Biden can do little to maintain American support for Ukraine if Trump returns and chooses to pursue foreign policy in the opposite direction.
“There is no such thing as ‘Trump-proofing’,” said Alexander Vindman, former director of European affairs in the Trump White House. ‘That’s a mirage. You can’t do that when the president of the United States has a diametrically opposed worldview.”
Trump has been gone for nearly four years and is a growing focus of the G7 and other world leaders as his rematch with Biden approaches. As president, he sparred frequently with longtime American allies, some of whom question his commitment to a post-World War II order rooted in alliances among democratic nations.
“When I travel internationally, the only question I get from our friends and allies is, ‘What’s going to happen? Is America still committed to rules-based engagement around the world or not?” said John Kelly, a former Trump White House chief of staff who broke with the former president. “They also ask about our upcoming elections and what the former president, if re-elected, could do to ensure America remains engaged globally.”
“I will discuss the options, but always ensure that the majority of Americans see the wisdom in staying engaged around the world and working with friends, partners and allies to deter war and preserve peace.” , Kelly continued.
Ben Hodges, former commander of the US military in Europe, told NBC News: “The grim possibility of a Trump return is obviously part of most foreign policy discussions with our allies. None of them want Trump to return because they don’t trust him.”
Trump, for his part, tried to portray Biden as a diminished figure who embarrassed the US during his appearance at the summit.
At his 78th birthday party Friday in West Palm Beach, Florida, Trump mentioned an incident the day before in which Biden and the other G7 leaders gathered to watch a skydiving exhibition.
A video that went viral appeared to show Biden straying from his colleagues, only to be pulled back by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
“The new leader of Italy has done a great job,” Trump said. “She said, ‘Turn around, you idiot.’ Now they no longer respect our country.”
The video is even cropped. A wider angle revealed that Biden had merely walked up to one of the paratroopers who had landed and gave a congratulatory thumbs up.
Biden chose to make the most of the summit, which could be his last depending on the election. His entourage included granddaughters Maisy, Finnegan and Naomi, who testified at her father Hunter Biden’s trial in Wilmington, Delaware.
A possible highlight of the president’s trip was a private meeting with Pope Francis on Friday. White House aides did not respond when asked whether Biden’s granddaughters would join him.
Biden is a practicing Catholic who has expressed admiration for the pope, calling him “the most important fighter for peace I have ever met.”
Faith has long been a refuge for Biden. The papal visit comes as he and his family cope with the news of Hunter’s conviction. Biden did not reveal what was said during the meeting.
“It went well,” he told reporters.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
