When Dustin Poirier watches film of UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev, the task of defeating him at UFC 302 on June 1 doesn’t exactly seem to be getting any easier.
“I don’t see a lot of holes to be honest,” Poirier told Yahoo Sports. “When I sit here with my coaches looking at footage, we look and look at things. He’s got good stand-up, his wrestling is obviously good, really good body locks… sweeps, trips, stuff like that. He seems very strong for the weight class, very dominant at the top, seems very heavy. It is exactly what it is. I’m fighting the No. 1 pound-per-pound guy.
You’d think that would be discouraging. Makhachev hasn’t lost a fight in almost nine years. That knockout defeat in his second UFC fight remains the only blemish on his professional record. Since then, he has won thirteen in a row, capturing the UFC lightweight title. What do you hope to threaten such a person with, especially when even after extensive film research you can’t find any weaknesses?
And yet Poirier doesn’t hesitate when it comes to making a prediction for the fight. After Makhachev laid out a vision for the future that ended with him pulling Poirier off a failed guillotine choke attempt and ending the fight quickly, Poirier responded with an even more succinct prediction.
“I’m going to knock him out,” Poirier said, “and the referee is going to pull me off him.”
But there is more at stake for Poirier. At 35 years old, and with losses in two previous attempts to claim the undisputed UFC Lightweight Championship, this could very well be his last best chance to add UFC Champion to his resume. Although he won an interim version of the 155-pound belt in 2019, that version of the title always comes with an asterisk of some kind. It’s just not the same as the real thing, and it’s the real thing that adds an ineffable shine to every great UFC career.
As a 15-year veteran of this sport, Poirier knows this better than anyone. It’s not just winning a UFC title that’s so difficult, it’s also putting yourself in a position to get the opportunity. To get this, Poirier first had to beat Benoît Saint Denis, a 28-year-old French special forces soldier who came in as the odds-on favorite to win.
Poirier knew what UFC matchmakers were thinking about the fight, and it wasn’t like they were necessarily trying to say that it in a position to move up.
“Of course it’s 100 percent what was going through my mind,” Poirier said. “And I understand: it’s business. He has more in front of him than behind him. I have more behind me than in front of me. You need to keep these exciting fighters and the guys you want to push at the forefront so you give this guy the opportunity to really boost his name.
What happened instead was Poirier knocked him out midway through the second round and then walked over to where UFC President Dana White was sitting to ask as politely as possible if the UFC really wanted to keep trying to use him as a stepping stone . .
That win put Poirier exactly where he needed to be at this stage of his career. The only problem was that the next title shot was promised to the winner of the Arman Tsarukyan vs. Charles Oliveira fight at UFC 300.
Poirier, as you might expect, watched that fight with great interest. He had made it clear that he wanted the shot at Makhachev, but he also knew that his chances of actually getting that shot were “slim.”
“Whoever won that fight was guaranteed a title shot,” Poirier said. “They would have to take too much damage or not be ready to bounce back in another training camp, which I thought they would say yes (to the title shot).”
What worked in his favor was the timing, and perhaps the impatience of the UFC itself. The date for the next UFC lightweight title fight had already been set. Tsarukyan had just returned to his locker room after defeating Oliveira via split decision when UFC officials showed up asking if he was willing to commit to the fight on June 1 in Newark, New Jersey.
If he turned it down, UFC officials would have told Poirier, “You’re the man.” When the phone rang a few minutes later, he had his answer. Tsarukyan was gone; Poirier was inside.
“It was a surprise to me,” Poirier said. “But sometimes things fall into place the way they’re supposed to.”
Now comes the hardest part: finding a way to beat Makhachev. Once again Poirier comes in with the odds against him. This time around, he’s a +375 underdog at BetMGM. The champion seems convinced of at least two things. One is that Poirier will attempt the guillotine choke that he has become known for despite never successfully completing it in a professional fight. The other is that the belt ultimately stays where it is.
As for the guillotine, Poirier’s coaches warned him, like “a record on repeat,” not to jump for that choke this time.
“We’ll see,” Poirier said. “I just have to play it and feel how I feel in there and see how I feel in those positions. But I’ll probably jump over it.”
If this were a movie, maybe that would be the moment when the guillotine would finally work for him. It would make him a UFC champion with the move he has become known for, and the hero’s entire arc would be complete. Freeze the frame and roll the credits.
In real life it will probably be a lot harder. And this combination of timing and opportunity may never happen again.
“I feel like I can climb the road again and again,” Poirier said. “It’s just: Do I have it in me? Do I want to do that? I’ve been doing it for so many years, gritting my teeth and fighting my way up this ladder to try to become #1. The goal is to become the undisputed world champion. That’s all I have left to do in this sport. I want to finish the story and be the champion forever. That’s my goal.”
