It was just two weeks ago when the Texas Rangers were in first place in the AL West, five games above .500 and 8.5 games ahead of the rival Houston Astros. With Houston’s pitching in shambles and Seattle’s offense stuck in the mud, there seemed to be a golden opportunity for the Rangers to gain more distance in the division race.
Instead, Texas lost nine of its next twelve games. By losing the series opener Tuesday in Philadelphia, the Rangers fell below .500 for the first time all season. And because they’ve caught the powerhouse Phillies on a much different trajectory than themselves, the Rangers are at high risk of dropping a fourth straight series in the coming days. Suddenly, Texas is three games behind the first-place Mariners and just 2.5 games ahead of a resurgent Houston club that has played much better in recent weeks after a shockingly sad April.
So is it time to panic? Probably not. But as June approaches, now feels like a good time to recalibrate our expectations for the defending champions and assess what has contributed to their mediocre start to 2024 – a start that stands in stark contrast to the path they embarked on a year ago charted the regular season.
Superstars and star bats don’t look like juggernauts
Remember, this is about the time of the season when last year’s Texas club began to assert itself as a legitimate contender in the American League. Fueled by one of baseball’s best lineups and just enough competence on the mound, the Rangers went 18-9 last May and carried much of that momentum into the summer, building a season-high 6.5-game lead by the end of June in the AL West. . The division’s grip gradually loosened in the second half and the Rangers lost the crown to Houston on the final day of the regular season. Of course, a red-hot run in October – mostly en route – to the franchise’s first World Series title quickly put an end to the sour taste of September.
While we know the story of the 2023 Rangers ultimately had a happy ending, it’s crucial to remember how close Texas came to missing the opportunity to find some magic in October. And this year, it doesn’t look like Rangers will have the luxury of a comfortable position in the standings thanks to a strong first half. If a return to the postseason is in the offing, Texas will have to find its feet in the dog days of summer, rather than waiting until the postseason to play its best baseball.
One of the biggest reasons Texas got off to such a great start a year ago was an offense that was as dangerous as any in the league. It declined somewhat as the summer progressed, but came back to life in October, culminating in two legendary performances from Corey Seager and Adolis GarcÃa and the introduction of 21-year-old outfielder Evan Carter to the national audience.
With nearly every key hitter back in the fold — plus a full season from Carter and the addition of top prospect Wyatt Langford to the everyday lineup — Texas was expected to have an even scarier lineup for 2024, a remarkable idea considering what the unit reached by 2024. 2023. But while Texas ranks in the top half of MLB in most offensive categories, it hasn’t looked like a juggernaut by any means. Seager endured one of the worst slumps of his career from mid-April to early May, a period from which he is only just beginning to emerge. GarcÃa was great in April before crashing back to earth with an ugly May. Marcus Semien has been steady as always, but he can’t run a lineup on his own. Carter still needs to answer questions about his ability to handle lefties, while he is only solid against righties. And while Langford faced a disproportionate number of bad strike calls in his first stretch before landing on the IL with a hamstring injury, he didn’t exactly rip the cover off the ball before getting hurt, either.
Nathaniel Lowe has been great since coming off the injured list after an oblique strain, but he was severely missed for the first three weeks. Josh Jung required wrist surgery after being hit by a pitch in the first week and isn’t expected back anytime soon, though that loss has been somewhat mitigated by the surprisingly robust production of utility man Josh Smith (123 OPS+), who played admirably at third base has fallen in. . Yet Jung’s power potential is conspicuously absent from the heart of the order, especially now that the other stars have not yet made any major moves.
There are reasons for optimism when it comes to returning to championship form
From a stylistic perspective, it was much easier to stomach Texas ranking 27th in stolen bases a year ago when the offense was scoring at such a high level. A similar lack of enthusiasm on the basepaths this year — 19 steals in 49 games currently ranks 29th in the MLB — is a more glaring weakness for Texas as its biggest bats pack less punch. Overall, while it would be a stretch to call it a bad offense, it certainly felt stagnant at times, a rather problematic reality given the issues on the mound.
Even before the season, one of the biggest questions for Texas entering 2024 was what the rotation would look like (or could look like) after the All-Star break. With the expected return of Max Scherzer from offseason back surgery, and the possible return of Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle from Tommy John surgery, the hope was that the pitching staff could tread water until those impact arms rejoin the fold . But injuries to Opening Day starter Nathan Eovaldi, 2023 innings leader Dane Dunning, reliable left-hander Cody Bradford and postseason breakout star Josh Sborz have decimated this group even further, forcing Texas to dive further into the depths where it was hardly necessary in the beginning. While the rotation — especially Jon Gray, who has been quietly fantastic of late — has largely done its job since Eovaldi went down, the bullpen certainly hasn’t. Despite standout performances from veterans Kirby Yates and David Robertson who were explicitly brought in to bolster the unit this winter, the Rangers relievers currently rank 30th in baseball with a collective ERA of 5.15. That’s not going to work.
While injuries have plagued several early contenders, Texas’ issues staying healthy up and down the roster stands out as particularly overwhelming. But let’s remind ourselves that it’s a long season. Texas’ health issues are also reasons for optimism when you consider what this team could and should look like at full strength in the second half. There are too many good to great players on this roster to dismiss their relevance as a playoff candidate. Furthermore, Texas is hardly the only talented team that has failed to demonstrate its potential in the first two months. The opponent in last year’s Fall Classic, the Diamondbacks, didn’t exactly get off to a torrid start either, not to mention similarly expensive teams like Toronto, San Diego and San Francisco.
And in terms of their direct competition, Seattle and Houston each have their own roster flaws and internal challenges to overcome in the coming months. At the same time, they’re all good enough to grab a chance at a division title if Texas continues to falter.
With a new championship standard set, it’s up to the Rangers to remind us what made them contenders in the first place.
