WASHINGTON (AP) — Oklahoma voters will decide Tuesday on nearly 60 contested primaries for the U.S. House of Representatives and both chambers of the state Legislature. The race to watch will be the Republican primary in the state’s 4th Congressional District, where a deep-pocketed challenger is attempting to unseat the 10-term incumbent. Tom Cole.
Businessman Paul Bondar, a political newcomer who sold an insurance group he founded, has spent nearly $4.9 million, much of it out of his own pocket, according to campaign finance filings. Cole, chairman of the powerful House Appropriations Committee, has spent $3.1 million but has about six times as much cash on hand. While Bondar has drawn criticism for his votes in support of foreign aid, Cole has buttressed his conservative bona fides with the support of former President Donald Trump.
Bondar has also faced questions about his residency. He last lived in Texas and even voted during that state’s Republican primary in March — a focal point of Cole’s attacks on him.
While Bondar’s well-funded campaign could cause problems for Cole, it’s the Oklahoma runoff threshold, plus the three candidates on the ballot besides Bondar and Cole, that pose a more pressing problem. If Cole’s four opponents combine to keep him under 50% of the vote, he and the next highest vote-getter will advance to a runoff in August.
There are two other U.S. representatives facing challengers.
In the Tulsa-based 1st District, incumbent Kevin Hern will face Paul Royse. Royse has not filed any campaign finance information with the Federal Election Commission. On the Democratic side, Evelyn Rogers, who sought this seat as an independent in the past two general elections, or former FBI agent Dennis Baker will face Hern in November. Baker has raised nearly $91,000, compared to Rogers’ $1,300.
And in the 3rd District, Frank Lucas, the longest-serving incumbent in the House delegation, has two challengers, neither of whom reported raising more than $20,000 this cycle.
Incumbents Josh Breechen in the 2nd Congressional District and Stephanie Bice in the 5th have no primary opponents, but will face Democratic challengers in the general election, both of whom are also uncontested in their primaries.
Oklahoma’s state legislature is solidly Republican. The governor’s mansion, the Senate and the state House have all been controlled by Republicans since 2011. As of 2019, Republicans hold a three-quarters supermajority in both chambers of the state legislature.
Forty-four incumbent members of the state House drew no challengers in their primaries or from the opposing political party, so 36 Republicans and eight Democrats have an unobstructed path to another term. Five of the 24 senators whose terms expire this year are in a similar boat. They’re all Republicans.
Here’s what to expect on Tuesday:
PRIMARY DAY
The primaries in the state of Oklahoma will be held on Tuesday. Polls close at 8:00 PM ET.
WHAT’S ON THE BALLOT
The Associated Press will report on the votes and announce the winners in more than 60 contested primaries for the U.S. House of Representatives, Senate, State House and Business Commissioner. There are five contested primaries in the U.S. House: Republican primaries in the 1st, 3rd and 4th Congressional Districts and Democratic primaries in the 1st and 4th Districts.
WHO CAN VOTE
Registered party members may only vote in the primaries of their own party. In other words, registered Democrats cannot vote in the Republican primaries, or vice versa. The Democrats will allow independent or unaffiliated voters to participate in their 2024 primaries; Republicans don’t.
DECISION NOTES
To avoid a runoff, a primary candidate must win at least 50% of the vote. Two of the U.S. House of Representatives elections — the Republican primaries in the 3rd and 4th Districts — have more than two candidates on the ballot, so they could potentially lead to a runoff.
In the 4th District, the key county to watch is Cleveland, the county with the most votes. Cleveland County is located just south of Oklahoma City and includes Norman, the third most populous city in the state.
The 3rd District is the state’s largest by geographic area, stretching from the northern and western suburbs of Oklahoma City and Tulsa to the Panhandle. It includes all or part of 32 provinces. The largest is Payne County, home to Stillwater.
The 1st District, on the other hand, is the most compact in the state, as it is largely coterminous with the Tulsa metropolitan area. It includes all of Tulsa County, the main county to watch, as well as parts of Creek, Rogers and Wagoner counties.
The AP does not make forecasts and will only declare a winner if it has been established that there is no scenario with which the underlying candidates can close the gap. If no race is called, the AP will continue to report on any newsworthy developments, such as concessions to candidates or declarations of victory. The AP will make it clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
Oklahoma’s mandatory recount threshold applies only to state questions, not to candidate races. Candidates can request recounts.
What do attendance and presales look like?
As of June 3, there were 2,343,736 registered voters in Oklahoma. Of those, 28% were registered Democrats and 52% were Republicans.
In the 2022 state primaries, turnout in the U.S. Senate primaries was 15% in the Democratic primaries and 31% in the Republican primaries. In the March presidential primaries, 11% of votes in the Democratic primaries and 7% of votes in the Republican primaries were cast before Election Day.
As of Wednesday, about 10,200 absentee ballots had been returned — 27% from registered Democrats, 69% from registered Republicans.
How long does vote counting usually take?
During the 2022 statewide primary, the AP first reported results at 8:10 p.m. ET, or 10 minutes after polls closed. Election night tabulation ended at 12:33 a.m. ET with 99.9% of the total votes counted.
ARE WE THERE YET?
As of Tuesday, there are 140 days until the November general election.
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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2024 elections at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.
