Over the past decade, few things in baseball have been more reliable than the success of the Houston Astros. Since 2017, the Stros have the second-most wins in the MLB, and during that time the Orange-and-Navy juggernaut became the first franchise to reach seven straight American League Championship Series. They have appeared in four Fall Classics along the way, winning in 2017 and 2022.
The Astros have been the rising and setting sun, the tides crashing against the shore. All roads in October led to and passed through Houston. It’s the closest thing to a dynasty baseball has seen since the New York Yankees of the late 1990s. José Altuve, Alex Bregman, Justin Verlander, Yordan Álvarez, Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez: These are some of the names and faces that have defined this era of playoff baseball.
But now, for the first time in a long time, there appears to be darkness at the end of the tunnel.
Nearly a month into the 2024 season, the Houston Astros are a paltry 7-17. Only three clubs – the White Sox, Rockies and Marlins – have worse records. Even the underfunded, soon-to-be nomadic Oakland Athletics are above Houston in the American League West.
That leads to a few important questions: How did this happen? Why has this roster – strikingly similar to last year’s division-winning group – produced such awful baseball? How likely is it that the tide will turn? What are the legitimate concerns, and what is small-scale gobbledygook?
The season is still young. April has yet to turn into May, and there’s plenty of time for Houston to right the ship. But at the same time, the warning signs for this team are clear and loud and impossible to ignore.
Rotational injuries
Houston currently has an entire elite pitching rotation on the injured list. That group includes Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, José Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia. Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander returned from the fold last week after missing three weeks with a shoulder infection. It’s a score of adversity that has surpassed the typical turnover and forced some of Houston’s second-line weapons into the fire.
Ronel Blanco, who threw a no-hitter in his first start of the season, was a wonderful discovery, but the other unproven starters have struggled, with JP France, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arighetti all looking overmatched. In 50 combined innings across 12 starts, that trio has allowed 49 runs.
Things could get better from here. Houston is hopeful Valdez will return next week. Verlander is still a front-line starter at age 41, even if injuries are rampant at this point in his career. Javier pitched well before a neck problem left him on the shelf. That trio, alongside the suddenly masterful Blanco, would make for a formidable playoff rotation — if Houston can get there.
But Garcia, McCullers and Urquidy are not expected back for a while. Javier doesn’t have a return timeline yet. Verlander is “baseball old,” meaning his body could fail him at any moment. Valdez’s elbow discomfort hasn’t completely resolved and it’s the type of condition that could recur or worsen. Blanco’s track record is shorter than the distance down the left field line at Minute Maid Park. Improvements over the second-tier starters are a must if Houston wants to climb out of this already imposing ditch.
Bullpen catastrophe
This offseason, Houston made an unusually splashy move by signing Josh Hader, one of the game’s most dominant closers, to a five-year, $95 million deal. His addition would strengthen an already stellar bullpen led by Ryan Pressley and Bryan Abreu. Instead, Houston’s relief corps was the club’s main anchor and the main reason behind its early-season struggles.
Eight times this year, new manager Joe Espada has handed the ball to Hader, Pressley or Abreu with a late-innings lead. Six saves were made. That’s an unsustainably bad mark — the worst in baseball, even — for any bullpen, let alone such an expensive unit expected to dominate foes in the late innings.
That said, if the Astros pin had held onto just two more of that lead, the club would now be a disappointing but not earth-shattering 9-15. This is an area where improvement seems inevitable, despite the recent string of poor results.
Bad attacking luck
Despite all the injuries, late-game chaos and ugly losses, Houston’s vaunted offense has, for the most part, held up its end of the bargain. Yes, Josè Abreu looks unfortunately cooked, and impending free agent Alex Bregman has stumbled out of the gate, but most of this lineup has fizzled. Houston’s offense, aside from a 7-17 record, has performed like that of a playoff team.
In fact, the Astros rank fourth in baseball in team wRC+, behind only the Dodgers, Orioles and Braves. Altuve should be in the AL MVP mix. Álvarez remains one of the most formidable hitters in the sport. Tucker is a force. The second level guys like Yainer Diaz, Jeremy Peña and Jake Meyers were fantastic.
But there’s clearly a disconnect here between the offensive output and run production. Despite the good numbers, Houston is 19th in the MLB in runs scored. The culprit is a combination of small sample size, poor baserunning, and poor attacking order. Houston’s production with runners in scoring position is significantly worse (closer to league average) than its overall production. It’s hard to say how much of this is luck versus skill, and some of that will certainly improve over time, but it’s worth noting that the 2023 San Diego Padres went down on a historically bad performance with runners on base.
Can the Astros pull themselves out of this hole? Possibly. Possibly not. This team is probably a real value club with 90 wins. Unfortunately for them, they’ll have to play like a 100-win team the rest of the time if they want to continue their wonderful seven-year run.
