Baseball’s annual winter meetings kicked off Sunday with the New York Mets’ monumental signing of Juan Soto and concluded Wednesday with Boston’s blockbuster trade to acquire left-hander Garrett Crochet from the Chicago White Sox. After a busy week across the industry, it’s clear that the free-agent and trade markets are fully activated – and more follow-on trades are sure to happen.
The trade market and the free agent market are inherently intertwined, with completed signings and trades constantly forcing teams to reevaluate their path forward as they attempt to address the biggest holes in their rosters. When top talent in a particular position is available through both trade and free agency, clubs must decide whether they prefer to acquire talent by offering the biggest and best contract or by offering the most attractive collection of young talent in a trade. And one team’s willingness to go the monetary route — the Yankees securing Max Fried with the largest free-agent deal ever given to a left-handed pitcher, for example — could influence another team’s urgency to make a to bring in a pitcher like Crochet with a huge prospect. package.
We’ve already seen this dynamic development at the top of the starting pitching market, and the third base market could develop in a similar manner in the coming weeks. With Willy Adames off the board after signing with the Giants, Alex Bregman is by far the most important free-agent infielder available. At the same time, it has become increasingly clear in recent weeks — and much talked about during the winter meetings — that another big-name third baseman could also be viable for teams looking for a meaningful infield upgrade: Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado.
Early in the offseason, St. Louis signaled a willingness to trade its three most prominent veterans — Arenado, Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras — and use 2025 as a transition year to retool the roster and get a better idea of which young players will be part. from the core of the team for the long term. But because all three do not have trade clauses in their contracts, such deals require the players’ consent. And with Gray and Contreras reportedly less likely to seek treatment, Arenado — whose agent, Joel Wolfe, has expressed his client’s preference to be traded to a contending team — has emerged as the Cardinals’ vet who will probably be moved this winter. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak has even publicly stated his intention to deal the 10-time Gold Glove winner.
As Bregman and his agent, Scott Boras, look for a deal beyond the seven-year, $182 million pact Adames received from San Francisco, Arenado — who is owed $74 million over the next three seasons — steps up as a cost-efficient alternative. . Of course, it’s not nearly as simple as one player costs more than the other. At this stage of their careers, Bregman is clearly the superior player. And given Arenado’s no-trade clause, not just any team will be able to call up the Cardinals and make a deal.
But before any team even raises the possibility of Arenado waiving his no-trade clause for them, they have to answer a simpler question: Just how good is this guy? Because even though he needs a smaller financial outlay than Bregman, committing more than $20 million annually for three more years to a soon-to-be 34-year-old third baseman coming off the worst full season of his career isn’t a decision. has a back. be made light.
A decade after his debut with the Rockies in 2013, Arenado’s world-class defense and powerful bat kept him comfortably in the inner circle of elite players at his position. But as his production at the plate has declined over the past two years in St. Louis, his overall value has become that of a very good player rather than a truly excellent player.
Here are Arenado’s annual fWAR and rankings among top third basemen in the MLB, starting with his first All-Star season in 2015:
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2015: 4.5 (5th)
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2016: 6.0 (3rd)
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2017: 5.8 (4th)
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2018: 5.9 (4th)
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2019: 6.1 (4th)
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2020: 0.6 (26th)
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2021: 4.3 (4th)
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2022: 7.2 (1st)
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2023: 2.7 (12th)
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2024: 3.1 (10th)
Outside of the shortened 2020 season, where Arenado was injured for a while, the trajectory is clear: He was one of the best third basemen in the world for a long time, but that’s no longer the case. While his defense in the hot corner remains at an exceptionally high level, Arenado’s bat appears to be heading in the wrong direction.
After a monstrous 2022 season that saw him finish third in the NL MVP voting, Arenado opened 2023 with one of the worst months of his career, posting a .582 OPS in April. His bat warmed up with the weather, hitting .295/.346/.584 with 20 home runs in 74 games from early May to late July. But his poor early form gradually resurfaced, as he hit .184 with just one home run in his final 30 games before ending the year on the injured list due to back spasms.
While there were indications of top production in the middle months of 2023, 2024 offered less encouraging signs offensively for Arenado. Despite playing 152 games — durability has remained a hallmark of his career — Arenado’s best month was the .807 OPS he posted in August. His .646 OPS against lefties was his worst season mark as a major leaguer.
Arenado’s ability to put the ball in play remains well above average – only 11 qualified batters hit at a lower level than Arenado’s 14.5% – but his overall quality of contact declined sharply in 2024. He registered career lows somewhat concerns the number of hard hits (31.6%; 12th percentile in MLB), barrel velocity (3.2%; sixth percentile) and average exit velocity (130.3 km/h; ninth percentile).
These are disturbing trends. But given his still-stellar glove work at a valuable position and his renowned work ethic and positive clubhouse reputation, Arenado will have interest from suitors.
Which teams could be in line for Arenado?
If Arenado is determined to be traded to a certified contender, neither defensive pennant winner seems like a realistic option. The Dodgers were rumored to be a possible landing spot for the California native in trade talks earlier in his career, but they are reportedly committed to Max Muncy at the position, and understandably so. The Yankees — who not long ago had a bad experience trading for an aging third baseman in Josh Donaldson — don’t seem particularly interested and could prioritize pursuing Bregman to improve their infield.
But the Yankees aren’t the only team chasing Bregman. The Tigers, Red Sox and Astros are all reportedly in the mix to sign the third baseman. Either of these teams could theoretically move on to Arenado if Bregman signs elsewhere, though each team faces different obstacles to a potential acquisition.
Detroit may be more willing to commit long-term to a player in Bregman who is still in his prime and has a strong bond with manager AJ Hinch, but Arenado could provide the veteran presence that the ultra-young roster of the Tigers desperately need. Houston could turn to Arenado as a short-term solution at third down if Bregman leaves his old home. Neither club is a favored destination for Arenado, but both would give him the opportunity to play for a team with October ambitions.
Boston’s interest in Bregman suggests a willingness to move Rafael Devers to first base, a possibility that was refuted by manager Alex Cora. It is unclear whether such a significant adjustment for the current franchise player would also be made to make room for Arenado. As another option, Steve Cohen’s Mets certainly wouldn’t be deterred by the money Arenado is owed, but they might prefer to stay young at the position, with Brett Baty as the leading candidate, and go heavier instead invest in the pitching staff.
In addition to the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox, the Phillies, Padres and Angels are three other teams Arenado is reportedly interested in, although none seem obvious. So while Arenado’s landing spot may be limited to these six teams, his no-trade clause gives him and Wolfe the opportunity to work with the Cardinals’ front office to find a preferred destination. Other teams may emerge as viable candidates as negotiations develop.
The Angels — who owe Anthony Rendon nearly $80 million over the next two seasons and are coming off their ninth consecutive losing season — appear unable to satisfy Arenado’s desire to be traded to a winning situation. Philadelphia has reportedly been open to acquiring Alec Bohm, but such a move would have to precede an Arenado acquisition, and Philadelphia doesn’t appear to have much traction on a Bohm trade at this point.
That Arenado has expressed a willingness to move to the top spot if it means he can play for a contender suggests he could land with a team with a superior option anchored at his position, such as San Diego with Manny Machado. But it’s also hard to imagine any team seeing the value in adding Arenado as a first baseman at his current price, especially if his offensive production continues to decline — let alone a team in the Padres who isn’t expected to they will add a significant salary this winter. .
It seems likely that an Arenado trade will eventually happen, but finding a trading partner isn’t as easy as you might think, and Bregman’s impending decision will impact Arenado’s market one way or another. Should Arenado be dealt, a player who joined the Cardinals via trade from the wayward Rockies with the prospect of playing for a perennial contender would end his tenure having won fewer postseason games with St. Louis (0 ) than with Colorado (1). .
Will the next chapter of Arenado’s career include more success in October? He certainly hopes so. His next team will go a long way to determining that.
