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The country experienced historically low unemployment Donald Trump until the Covid pandemic. Since then, the country has also seen low unemployment rates Joe Biden became chairman.
But prices have soared since Biden was sworn in. And Trump has endured a deep, if brief, recession.
The current and former presidents debated on Thursday, and a key topic was the one polls say is top of mind for voters: the economy.
“We had the best economy in the history of our country. We’ve never done better,” Trump said, a claim widely disputed by economists. The economy grew for more than eight consecutive years in the 1960s and 10 years between late 2009 and February 2020.
He claimed that “no one ever cut taxes like we did,” a questionable claim. President Ronald Reagan led an effort to cut income tax rates by 25% in three years in the early 1980s. The nonpartisan Tax Policy Center has found that Trump’s 2017 tax cut helped wealthy earners far more than others.
Trump accused Biden of being responsible for the high inflation. Prices rose for a variety of reasons, most notably a spike in gasoline prices. Biden critics accused Biden of allowing massive federal spending to stimulate the economy to play a role as well.
Biden had a different view of his stewardship of the economy. “The economy collapsed. There were no jobs,” Biden said under Trump.
He recalled how unemployment skyrocketed during the pandemic, reaching 14.8% in April 2020 but quickly recovering to 6.4% in January 2021 when Trump left office.
Biden accused Trump of not doing “much at all” to help the economy. Under Trump, Congress quickly passed the $2.2 trillion CARES Act in March 2020, which expanded unemployment benefits and other relief programs.
The law, which passed with bipartisan support, was seen as crucial for the rapid recovery from the Covid economic downturn.
All the numbers don’t offer an easy conclusion about who presided over a more robust economy. It’s a question whose answer depends largely on one’s political views and personal experience.
Here’s a guide to finding out:
Unemployment
California’s unemployment rate fell slightly last month to 5.2%. Employers added 43,700 jobs, the most since October. But the state’s unemployment rate also remained well above the national average of 4% and was the highest among the 50 states.
In February 2020, before the pandemic rocked the economy, the state rate was 4.4% (seasonally adjusted).
That spring, the rate rose to double digits, and when Biden was inaugurated in January 2021, a rate of 8.7% was reported.
Inflation
Price increases have slowed dramatically. Prices rose an average of 7.3% in California in 2022, but are expected to rise 3.1% this year, according to the UCLA Anderson forecast.
Nationally, prices rose by 3.3% in the year to May, significantly down from 9.1% in June 2022. It is the highest increase since November 1981.
During the Trump administration, inflation in California was 3.7% in 2018, the highest annual level during his administration.
Petrol
Prices in California have been the highest in the country for quite some time. A gallon of regular gasoline cost $6.44 in mid-June 2022. On Thursday, the state average was $4.81, according to AAA.
When Trump took office in January 2017, the state average was $2.79, according to data from the federal Energy Information Administration. Four years later, when Biden was sworn in, the price was $3.21.
Gasoline prices are affected by several factors, often beyond the control of U.S. presidents: oil supplies, supply and demand, refinery closures, and so on.
Housing
In an effort to reduce inflation, the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate 11 times during the Biden administration. Mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed-rate loan averaged 6.87% last week, according to Freddie Mac, which tracks interest rates.
The average figure during the week of January 2017 when Trump took office. amounted to 4.09%. During the week of January 2021, when Biden was sworn in, it was 2.77%.
The recent spike in interest rates has not helped housing construction. In May, the California Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing single-family homes were down 6% year-over-year from the same month last year. The average price in May was $908,040, up 0.4% from April and 8.7% from a year earlier.
Although most economic forecasts expect interest rates to fall later this year, the Fed has not made the expected rate cuts.
Grow
California’s economy grew slightly faster than the rest of the country.
“While there are still challenges ahead, particularly state and local government finances, homelessness and out-migration, the forces driving California’s economy remain robust,” said Jerry Nickelsburg, director of the UCLA Anderson forecast in its semi-annual review of the state’s economy.
He also raised a major warning light, citing “sectoral weaknesses.”
Other experts also cite layoffs in the tech sector, the struggles of many small businesses and the slow recovery of the hospitality sector as factors that could hamper the state’s economy.
Consumer confidence
If consumers don’t spend, the theory goes, workers don’t produce goods and don’t have to provide the same level of service. Consumer confidence in the economy has been shaky lately.
“The decline in consumer confidence has not yet translated into a noticeable downturn among consumers, but they are clearly becoming more pessimistic again due to the lack of new progress on immigration, inflation and poor government leadership,” said Mark Schniepp, director of the Santa Barbara-based California Economic Forecast.
The Conference Board, a New York-based research firm, conducts monthly surveys on trust. This month’s findings are mixed.
“Their view of the current situation improved slightly overall, driven by an uptick in sentiment about the current labor market, but their assessment of current business conditions cooled,” Chief Economist Dana Peterson said in a statement.
