BOSTON – Do you dream of a white Christmas? I think most people would agree that some snow on the ground on Christmas morning helps set the mood, as long as it doesn’t disrupt the trip to Grandma’s house.
So, what are our chances this year? Let’s start by defining what exactly a ‘white Christmas’ is.
What is a white Christmas?
The National Weather Service says that to qualify for a white Christmas, there must be at least an inch of snow on the ground (where you live) by 7 a.m. on Christmas morning. Yes, this is somewhat arbitrary and “made up”. But for the purposes of this blog, let’s get on with it.
CBS Boston
Seems easy enough, right? It turns out it’s getting harder and harder to have a measly inch of snow on the ground on December 25th.
In Boston, this has only happened twice since the year 2000, the last time being 15 years ago! You may remember that we had a decent little snowstorm on Christmas Day in 2017, but that 2.9 inches fell AFTER 7am in Boston.
If you look strictly at the climatology and collect the data from the last 100+ years, you get a very colorful map:
CBS Boston
Not surprisingly, your chances increase the further north and west you live. For example, while Boston has between 10 and 25% chance of a white Christmas, Worcester is between 40 and 50% and Fitchburg between 50 and 60%.
Again, if you just took the last 20-25 years, these numbers would be MUCH lower. With a week to go, here’s a look at our current snow depth.
Very uninspiring thanks to the several rain showers in recent weeks.
CBS Boston
I see three chances of snow in the next seven days.
#1: Wednesday evening
This is largely a rainstorm in southern New England. The only chance of snow is at the highest elevations, especially in Vermont and New Hampshire.
Not to mention, anything stuck to the ground in southern New England would be gone within 24 hours thanks to a sunny day in the 40s on Thursday.
CBS Boston
#2: Friday evening-Saturday
This one had potential a few days ago, but the chances seem to diminish with each model run.
A storm system will approach our area from the west on Friday with a band of light snow. However, as this storm approaches New England, it will transfer its energy to an offshore storm a few hundred miles away at sea.
The offshore storm will become a very powerful storm this weekend, but not until it is well beyond our latitude and near Nova Scotia.
So for now it looks like the best case scenario would be some light snow and some scattered light Friday evening.
CBS Boston
#3: Christmas Eve Day
There’s one last chance for a Hail Mary at the buzzer. A very weak disturbance will blast out of the Great Lakes next Tuesday and sweep through New England sometime between Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
While the chances of an inch of snow falling in the nick of time are slim, it COULD at least mean a mood swing in the air during Santa’s ride or on Christmas Day!
CBS Boston
White Christmas opportunities
Putting it all together, here are the WBZ Weather Team’s predicted chances of a white Christmas…
CBS Boston
In Boston, near the coast and over southeastern MA, the odds are very low (but not zero!)
So you’re saying there’s a chance. The odds increase slightly as elevation increases and in areas far north and west, but even there I wouldn’t bet on it.
We’ll continue to look for snow and keep you informed of any forecast changes on WBZ-TV and CBSBoston.com
