NFL training camp season is here, ladies and gentlemen. Prepare yourself for the deluge of information, rumors, and hype pieces. But fantasy managers needn’t be wary of the influx of information — Scott Pianowski has you covered with a key tidbit for every team. First up, the NFC South.
Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts has been a fantasy disappointment through three seasons, throwing just six touchdowns and consistently failing to meet his ADP. But perhaps that was mostly a failure of the pieces around him. The Falcons haven’t had an average-rated quarterback since Pitts joined the team, and departed head coach Arthur Smith was likely upset.
Pitts is still on the escalator, entering his 24th season. And let’s not forget he posted 1,026 receiving yards in 2021, the second-most ever by a rookie tight end. Kirk Cousins is clearly a needed quarterback upgrade for the Falcons, and new OC Zac Robinson has spent five years learning under offensive wizard Sean McVay. Combine that with a razor-thin Atlanta schedule and Pitts is still a logical choice as a proactive fantasy pick, currently the TE7 off the board in Yahoo drafts.
Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young’s rookie season was tough to watch, as he was below the code in every primary efficiency metric except interceptions avoided. But maybe head coach Dave Canales can fix Young. Canales’ fingerprints were all over Baker Mayfield’s career season last year, and he was also an architect for Geno Smith’s rise in 2022.
Even if Young improves, it could be tough for him to command fantasy value in a traditional league. He’s probably best left as a backup option or Superflex consideration. But if we’re modestly hopeful for Young, that would likely push Diontae Johnson into credible fantasy territory. Johnson faces little competition for targets in Carolina and doesn’t have to do much to surpass his current Yahoo tag of WR35.
New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara is a polarizing fantasy pick entering 2024. Fellow draft pick Andy Behrens recently published some pro-Kamara opinions , and I always respect Andy’s opinions. But I worry that Kamara is more concerned with volume accumulation than splashy plays these days, and that causes me to dismiss the veteran entering his 29th season.
Kamara was a reliable fantasy producer after his 2023 suspension, finishing fifth in half-point PPR scoring per game. That ranking was helped by his consistent usage in the passing game — he had 75 grabs, second-most in the league. His receptions are great, but those plays weren’t all that successful — Kamara’s 6.2 yards per catch are a career low and a drop of 2.4 yards from the previous year.
The warning signs are more prominent with Kamara the runner. Kamara averaged just 3.9 yards per carry last year and didn’t have a single rush of more than 20 yards (a startling lack of explosiveness; hell, Baltimore backup Keaton Mitchell had seven such runs on just 47 carries). Add it all up, and Kamara averaged 5.4 yards per touch, the third straight year he’s fallen into that category. It’s a far cry from the 8.3 YPT he posted in his rookie season.
The Saints aren’t going out of their way to give Kamara easy touchdowns; he’s scored a modest 10 times in his last 28 games. Perhaps Taysom Hill will do some goal-line work, and second-year back Kendre Miller is also interesting after a dismal first season (largely ruined by injuries; he did it in Week 18). Given Kamara’s age and declining efficiency, I can’t see him as a destination fantasy pick this summer.
Tampa Bay Book Hunters
While receivers often have a bit of randomness in their touchdown percentages, there’s something to be said for consistent play design. Mike Evans has long been the go-to touchdown threat in the Tampa Bay passing game, and that still makes him an attractive fantasy pick as he enters his age 31st season.
Evans, of course, has thrown for 1,000 yards or more in each of his 10 pro seasons. He’s probably already a Hall of Famer. But it’s the touchdowns that make Evans fantasy royalty; he’s thrown 46 times in the last four years, including a league-high 13 touchdown catches last year.
Contrast that with Chris Godwin, a reliable receiver who doesn’t score often. While Godwin has 50 more receptions than Evans over the past four seasons, Godwin has a modest 17 touchdowns in that span — a full 29 scores behind his teammate. Sometimes these kinds of disparities can show up for a season or two, but since this touchdown trend is four years old, it’s worth following. That’s what Yahoo drafters are doing, pushing Evans to the WR14 position while Godwin is a modest WR36.
