From the north, motorists enter Scranton via the Joseph R Biden Jr Expressway. Cutting through the scenic Pocono Mountains, now at the dawn of the fall color season, they are greeted with a towering, electric billboard, blaring an all-encompassing – if divisive – message to this working-class town: “Democrats for Trump,” it reads. “Economics,” it continues, with a green checked box next to the word.
Biden’s hometown sign is the perfect welcome mat for the fall of 2024 in this crucial swing state full of voters whose economic anxiety or contentment will decide next month’s election.
The U.S. has made a remarkable recovery since the pandemic, and Biden has successfully pursued an economic agenda, Bidenomics, that should benefit Scranton and the state — his infrastructure bill earmarks $13 billion for just repairing highways and bridges. But poll after poll shows deep-seated concerns about the economy — concerns that could hurt Democrats’ chances of retaining the White House in November.
Like many mid-sized cities in the upper Midwest that have suffered post-industrial decline, Scranton, a longtime Democratic stronghold, has become more conservative in recent elections. With the town’s native son leaving office and pocketbook issues at the top of the agenda, some believe Trump could finally take over Scranton — a more than symbolic victory.
But with Kamala Harris, Biden’s successor, and Donald Trump tied in the polls, guessing who will take over Scranton, Pennsylvania, and the White House is a fool’s errand. And this politically divided city shows why the race is so close. On the street, one person’s economic reality can be completely different from that of another.
The complicated political mix of fears about the local economy, faith and distrust in both Harris and Trump and shifting political allegiances was evident at the Marketplace at Steamtown, a downtown shopping center filled with local mom-and-pop shops.
Pete, 78, a swing voter who declined to give his last name, said inflation has been a problem for the past four years but added prices are down, the stock market is high, and said he doesn’t blame Biden for the economic challenges.
“Every president is stuck with what happened before, and the pandemic happened, so Biden was in a hole to begin with,” Pete said. But the veteran added that the main issue driving him to Harris is that Trump disrespects veterans: “He called us suckers and losers.”
The argument for Trump’s economics is rock solid, Lori Higgins said wryly: “Look at the last four years – everyone is paying more for everything. What else do you need to know to make a decision?” Now 52, she voted for Democrats until Trump convinced her to switch parties in 2016.
There is disagreement over even the most basic details: Pete said he just paid $2.99 for gas, citing this as evidence that inflation is coming under control. Two Trump supporters said they paid as much as $3.50 for gas, which they say is evidence that inflation is still squeezing Scranton.
Trump and Harris have made nearly 50 visits to Pennsylvania so far this election cycle and spent nearly $1 billion on advertising — a record sum that reflects how crucial the cornerstone state’s 19 electoral votes, the biggest prize in any battleground, are. Trump made his second visit to Scranton in as many months last week. “Call everyone you know and vote immediately,” he urged rallygoers.
But it seems difficult to convince any part of the deeply divided electorate to switch votes.
Harris could still hold Scranton, said Berwood Yost, a Pennsylvania pollster, but that is “surprising” given the level of economic discontent in the city and county. “Dissatisfaction with Biden is very high and views on personal finance are very negative, so Trump should clearly be ahead,” Yost said. And yet polling averages show Harris with a one-point lead in Pennsylvania (well within the margin of error), which “speaks in part to some voters’ concerns about Trump and his personal character.”
Since 2000, Democrats have won the county with as much as 63% support, but Hillary Clinton narrowly won with less than 50% of the vote in 2016. Biden’s home field advantage may have buoyed Dems in 2020 — he was born and raised in Scranton to age 10, when his family moved to Delaware. third senator”. Biden defeated Trump in the county 53.7% to 45.3%.
Yet Scranton has become “ground zero for demonstrating the appeal of Trump and the Maga movement, and of places that traditionally voted Democrat ultimately changing their stripes in a significant way,” Yost said.
‘Much more optimistic’
Once a major city in the nation’s coal capital, Scranton’s economy is now driven by small businesses, retail, health care, education and the service sector, said Satyajit Ghosh, a University of Scranton economist. While there is no shortage of empty storefronts downtown, it is noticeably more vibrant than many comparable urban cores in the Rust Belt.
University of Scranton surveys of downtown businesses found that owners were concerned about the current economic climate in April but were decidedly more optimistic about the next six months: “Much more optimistic than a year ago,” Ghosh said.
Yost’s latest poll shows Harris up three points statewide and the economy as the top issue for 34% of residents. Other recent polls found that 60% of Pennsylvanians said their economic situation is worse, compared to 40% who say it is better or no different.
James Simrell is part of the latter group. When he closed his boxing gym in Steamtown, the lifelong Democrat was optimistic about Scranton’s economy. His gym is just one of his three businesses, and they’re all busy: he also designs jewelry and runs a small farm that produces pumpkins and pumpkins. He sells pumpkins to Blackwatch Cafe and squash to Abe’s Delicatessen, who uses it in their soup. “Everyone is doing well,” Simrell said.
In contrast, Trump’s economy “fell apart” when the former president left office amid a mismanaged pandemic, Simrell said. He has other reasons for not voting for Trump. His two adopted children are black and Trump is “a little biased – it drives my wife crazy.”
Echoing the old sentiment of Democratic voters, he added: “My mother and father were Democrats and I follow what they believe, and Kamala is the best person to be president – she is not crazy.”
But persistent inflation is still a drag for Eric Flesher, who runs a collectibles and vintage store, Rock-N-Models. He compared the economy to a ‘tightening sphincter’.
He declined to talk politics, but said everything remains expensive: “I’m in a business that sells stuff that no one needs unless they have disposable income, so it becomes much harder” when there’s inflation, Flesher said.
Flesher added that he does not agree with the “mentality here that I have to vote for someone because that is how my father and mother voted – then you are only voting for a party and not for a person,” he added .
‘She’s not the kind you can trust’
Economic indicators in Scranton track those of the broader US. Inflation, which peaked at 9.1% annually in mid-2022, has declined to 2.4%. Prices in Scranton have also fallen, economist Ghosh said. The region’s unemployment rate was 4.8% in August, above the national average of 4.1% but lower than the 9.2% when Biden took office in January 2021.
“In this area, which I have been covering for many years, I have truly never seen such a strong performance in terms of employment,” Ghosh said. Still, there is an aftereffect of inflation that consumers are feeling, Ghosh added, and some high prices, such as those for rent or food, still hurt.
Outside a Walmart in Dickson City, a shopping center just north of Scranton, husband and wife John and Carol Gardner are still feeling the pressure. Mount Cobb residents used to pay $150-$200 a month on groceries, and now they pay double that. Carol is out of a job due to disability, while John puts together buffets for twelve dollars an hour to make ends meet, even though he said he would have to retire.
“At least Trump made sure we could go shopping, and Biden is making sure we can’t,” Carol said. “I hope the lady doesn’t get in because we’re going straight downhill. She’s not the type you can trust.”
The view is different at Bethel AME, a 153-year-old black church on the west side of downtown. Pastor Mark Alexander sees an improving economy and blames Trump for inflation.
“Inflation was mainly a result of Covid and the way the former president handled that situation because when you have supply chain disruptions and poor leadership leading the nation, it makes things worse,” he said.
The Federal Reserve, not the president, decides rates, Alexander noted, pointing to low unemployment, the Chips Act — which invests billions in domestic research and semiconductor manufacturing — and Biden’s infrastructure bill as evidence of the president’s economic success.
Additionally, at Bethel AME there is “excitement for someone who looks like us and has gone through some of the things we have gone through and who comes from a middle-class upbringing,” Alexander added. “As opposed to a billionaire who has no idea what everyday life is like for middle class people,” he said. That’s especially true for younger people because Harris “speaks their language,” Alexander added.
For others, neither candidate is attractive. Mike Gilson owns a flooring company, a maintenance company and manages artists and chefs. He said the economy is strong locally because the economic backbone is old small businesses, and that it fared better than most other areas in the last session because of that makeup.
But the city’s relatively strong economic position cannot convince Gilson to vote for Harris. He said the president has a “ceremonial position” and big corporations run the nation. “If the president actually wields the power that people think he has, then voting would make a lot more sense to me,” Gilson said.
History will decide which of Scranton’s many votes will decide this election. At this point, it’s unclear whether the legacy of the city’s most famous son will be enough to sway Harris or ultimately hand Scranton and the state to Trump.
With the race essentially a toss-up at this point, the key for both sides will be turnout, Yost said. But Trump may have an advantage in that battle: people who vote less often have voted for Trump in recent elections.
“Democrats need to counter that by getting their voters to the polls,” Yost said. “Think of the election as a mosaic – there are many pieces and some are bigger than others, but they will all matter.”
