Allan Lichtman is used to being right.
In fact, he has been right about who will win each of the ten previous presidential elections except one. On Tuesday, he was wrong again for the first time since he picked Al Gore to win the 2000 election.
After incorrectly predicting that Kamala Harris would win the 2024 election, Lichtman, a historian and professor at American University, told USA TODAY that he is “taking some time off to assess why I was wrong and what the future holds for America has in store.
‘Why I was wrong’: Allan Lichtman fails to predict the correct outcome of the elections
Donald Trump, who lost the 2020 election that put President Joe Biden in the seat, overcame political obstacles, including two impeachments, a criminal conviction and two assassination attempts.
At the end of a nearly six-hour podcast hosted by his son Samuel Lichtman, the 77-year-old history professor said he was shocked by the election results.
Unlike Nate Silver, who will try to unravel why he didn’t see the election coming, I admit I was wrong. I’ll be judging the election and the keys on my live show next Thursday at 9pm Eastern. @allanlichtmanyoutube.
— Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtman) November 6, 2024
Who is Allan Lichtman?
Before receiving the title of “Distinguished Professor” from the American University in Washington, DC, Lichtman earned a Ph.D. specialized in modern American history and quantitative methods at Harvard.
In addition to lecturing in the US and around the world, Lichtman is the author of thirteen books and hundreds of scientific articles. He also served as an expert witness in civil and voting rights cases.
He routinely provides political commentary and is best known for his election predictions.
How does Lichtman make his choices for the presidential elections?
Lichtman said in a video first reported by The New York Times that he based his prediction on 13 keys, or “true-false, big-picture questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House Party.”
The keys include either:
◾ The White House party gained seats in the House during the midterm elections.
◾ The incumbent president runs for re-election.
◾ The White House party avoids a primary battle.
◾ There is a third party challenger.
◾ The short-term economy is strong.
◾ Long-term economic growth has been as good as the past two terms.
◾ The White House party has made major changes in national policy.
◾ There will be persistent social unrest during the term.
◾ The White House is not tainted by scandals, the incumbent party is charismatic.
◾ The challenger is uncharismatic.
◾ The incumbent president is charismatic.
◾ The White House party is having a major foreign policy failure.
◾ The White House party has had success in foreign policy.
Why did Lichtman choose Kamala Harris?
The famed prognosticator had said his ’13 keys’ system indicated Harris would win.
Lichtman touted the national exit poll results showing that democracy is increasingly becoming a major issue among voters, with the economy still number one, followed by issues such as abortion (14%) and immigration (11%) .
“If she can beat Pennsylvania, she still has a good chance,” Lichtman said just before the final hour of the show before Nevada’s results came in. “She’s running out of votes.”
Pennsylvania was later called for Trump.
“At some point the math just doesn’t add up,” his son said toward the end of the interview. “This show was just crazy… I think we’re both a little surprised.”
Lichtman: ‘I think she lost’
While Lichtman and his son spent the past hour analyzing votes in the swing state of Pennsylvania, his son called the election.
“I think she lost,” his son said during the final ten minutes of the show.
“I do too,” Lichtman replied immediately and then placed both hands on his temples. “Something ridiculous would have to happen… I’m still looking for a miracle in Pennsylvania, but I don’t think we’re going to get it.”
“I’ve gotten a lot of nice emails,” Lichtman told his son, “saying that no matter what happens, they really respect my voice.”
“The math doesn’t work,” Lichtman said. “The numbers don’t lie.”
“I can’t believe it,” his son said. “I’m a little bit in shock right now.”
His father replied, “It’s hard to believe.”
USA TODAY’s Jonathan Limehouse, Sudiksha Kochi and Rachel Barber contributed.
This article originally appeared in the Louisville Courier Journal: How Did Allan Lichtman Get It Wrong? Historian explains
