It’s easy to forget that after a group of Republicans in the House of Representatives successfully ousted then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy, his successor, Mike Johnson of Louisiana, was not the GOP’s first choice.
Or the second choice of the party. Or his third. Or his fourth.
Johnson was previously the party of the Republicans. fifth choice when he was elected last year, which showed a certain weakness. In the months that followed, the Louisianan’s position did not exactly improve, and in early May 2024 there was even a failed vote – caused by some of his own members – to take away his gavel.
A Politico headline at the time read: “Johnson Survived His First Impeachment Attempt. It will be harder to get past November.” The wording seems prescient seven months later. The Washington Post reported:
Johnson must run again for the job when the new House is sworn in on Jan. 3, and enough Republican lawmakers to deny him the job have already said they will not support him, according to two members who spoke on condition of anonymity. describe private conversations.
Although the Post’s report has not been independently verified by MSNBC or NBC News, there is ample evidence that Johnson’s future as Congress’ top Republican is very much in doubt.
After Johnson secured a bipartisan deal to prevent a government shutdown, several of his members rebelled. Republican Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, for example, has already publicly said he will not support his bid to remain chairman. A number of other Republicans in the House of Representatives — including Eric Burlison of Missouri, Andy Ogles of Tennessee and Eli Crane of Arizona — have both rejected Johnson and hedged on how they will vote on Jan. 3.
Complicating matters further, Donald Trump has reportedly expressed disapproval of the speaker’s handling of the process to avoid a shutdown, and that some Republicans in the Senate — including Missouri’s Josh Hawley and Kentuckys Rand Paulus – have made unsubtle comments this week about Johnson’s replacement.
Conspiratorial billionaire Elon Musk, meanwhile, held the speaker accountable for defending “one of the worst bills ever written.”
It’s fair to say that the president-elect, Republican senators and the richest person in the world won’t have a vote when it comes time to choose the next Speaker of the House of Representatives, but their disapproval of Johnson is emblematic of his slipping grip on his gavel.
This is clearly not where the speaker expected to be the week before Christmas, about two weeks before Republican members of the House of Representatives are scheduled to vote on who will lead them in the new Congress. On the contrary, after Republicans secured their slim majority in the aftermath of the 2024 election, Donald Trump effectively endorsed Johnson’s grip on the gavel, and the incumbent expressed optimism about his position within the party.
That optimism has now disappeared.
There’s been some talk about Johnson’s unavoidable failure, although I wouldn’t go that far, at least not yet. The election for the Speaker of the House of Representatives is 15 days away, and the sitting president can at least try to mend some fences between now and then. Moreover, it is not yet clear who would actually want the job if the Louisianan’s bid for another term fails.
But the prevailing winds are not at Johnson’s back, and Capitol Hill’s arithmetic does him no favors: as a Punchbowl News report summarized: “Johnson can only afford to lose three Republicans on the floor, given the numbers of former Rep. Matt Gaetz. R-Fla.) resign and assume all Democrats are present.”
Watch this space.
This article was originally published on MSNBC.com
