(Bloomberg) — Rishi Sunak said this week he is putting Britain’s defense spending on a ‘war footing’. He might as well have been talking about his own position.
Most read from Bloomberg
Allies of the British prime minister described him campaigning in recent days for the general election he is due to call at the end of January. A plan to tighten benefit rules, his flagship policy of deporting asylum seekers to Rwanda through parliament and ramming through a pledge to spend 2.5% of GDP on defense by 2030 all generated front-page coverage of the newspapers.
There has even been intense speculation, which Downing Street is trying to play down, that Sunak is preparing to announce the date for a national vote early next week as he tries to take control of the political agenda. On Friday afternoon, journalists, MPs and officials were frantically texting each other, exchanging clues that an announcement was – or wasn’t – imminent.
But another aide more candidly characterized the shift in pace as “Operation Save Rishi,” ahead of a more immediate test as the Conservative Party gears up for municipal and mayoral elections on Thursday.
They had been looming as a focal point for months. Sunak’s internal Tory critics have warned that any result showing the opposition Labor party marching to power would lead to attempts to oust him. The recent flurry of activity was partly about getting Sunak out of a leadership challenge next week, members of his team said on condition of anonymity. They still expect a tough time.
The Tories are defending just under 1,000 seats from the last vote in 2021, when the party was boosted by the rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine. National support for the party has since waned and Labour’s 20-point lead in the polls could translate into a loss of half those seats.
Yet there is even more attention on the outcome of two mayoral races, in the West Midlands and Tees Valley in northern England, where Tories Andy Street and Ben Houchen fight to stay in their role. Both are seen as figureheads for the Conservatives’ recent invasion of traditionally Labor areas, and the loss of either would be seen by many in the party as a bellwether for national defeat.
Defeats for Houchen and Street would put Sunak in danger, an MP has warned. A group of Tories, claiming to have gathered support for a leadership change, are waiting for a moment to act. One minister described the cabinet as tired and at the end of the road.
Privately, Sunak believes Houchen can hold his own and show the Tories can still win in areas the Labor Party is targeting, people familiar with the matter say. Street’s mayoralty is seen as uncertain, although he gave Sunak a boost by telling Bloomberg he would not blame the prime minister if he loses. The Conservatives expect Sadiq Khan, the Labor mayor, to win a third term relatively comfortably.
The Tories are likely to have a “bad night” but it will not be a “blowout” for Labour, Tory peer and pollster Robert Hayward told reporters this week. That’s because Labor could be punished by some voters critical of its position on the war between Israel and Hamas. That could especially play a role in the mayoral races, he said, and could potentially help Street and Houchen win.
Meanwhile, those running against Sunak are proposing House of Commons leader Penny Mordaunt as their preferred candidate, sharing opinion polls with other MPs showing her being viewed favorably by the public. But an ally of Mordaunt said she would not resign after the May 2 election or call for a change in leader, a position that appears to strengthen Sunak’s position.
Yet many of Sunak’s recent moves fit with the idea of a prime minister trying to fend off attacks. Monday’s pledge – that deportations of migrants to Rwanda would begin within 10 to 12 weeks – allows him to appeal to his right-wing Tory critics for more time to get flights in the air, an aide said.
Rwanda policy is so central to Sunak’s strategy that some Tory ministers and officials are openly speculating that he is considering calling a general election in July, around the time of the first flights. The rationale would be to persuade voters tempted by the right-wing Reform UK party to keep the Tories and Sunak’s pledge to prevent migrants from arriving across the English Channel.
A campaign slogan could be: “We will stop the boats, Labor will stop the flights,” said one aide.
Sunak’s pledge to increase defense spending, meanwhile, undermined a key selling point for Mordaunt, the aide said. The Royal Navy reservist is a natural figurehead for the Tories, who are generally keen to strengthen the country’s military.
At the same time, Tory officials were pleased that Starmer did not immediately match Sunak’s commitments on military spending, seeing it as an opportunity to focus the opposition on national security. Labour, which has pledged to increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP if public finances allow, accused the Tories of failing to show how they would pay for it.
More is promised, including attacks on Labor over its workers’ rights policies, in a bid to win back business leaders. One aide called it Sunak’s best week in office, and another said it was the first example of smart politics from his team – although they also complained it had not happened sooner.
Sunak’s office thinks he has had a good week at a good time and that the plot to replace him before the general election will come to nothing. Some advisers now want Sunak to announce the date for the national vote, something he has so far resisted. Downing Street’s preference previously was to hold the election in the autumn, when inflation and interest rates have fallen.
Defense Secretary Grant Shapps praised the Prime Minister’s leadership in an interview with the Times and urged Tory MPs to allow Sunak to ‘get on with his job’. “The past week has shown that we have a very effective Prime Minister when it comes to taking care of the things that really matter,” Shapps said.
In a week it will probably be clearer whether that optimism is well-founded. For now, Sunak is trying to paint a picture of a government making progress. He went jogging with Russ Cook, an ultrarunner known on social media as the “Hardest Geezer” who just ran across Africa.
“It is not an easy time to do this job,” Sunak told Cook in a video posted by Downing Street. “But we’ll keep going, right?”
–With help from Ailbhe Rea and Celia Bergin.
(Updates with Shapp’s comments in 19th paragraph)
Most read from Bloomberg Businessweek
©2024 BloombergLP
