Scottie Scheffler proved he is the best golfer in the world by winning the 88th Masters last weekend. Luckily for me, I was able to get in early in the futures market at +750 on Scheffler, giving me my third outright win of 2024 and my second straight win.
If you’re looking for my bets, you can always click HERE to visit my X page where I post every bet and all my tournament actions.
With the first Major behind us, it’s time to turn our attention to the exciting RBC Heritage at Harbor Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, SC. This signature event features a formidable field, with almost all of the PGA Tour Top 50 members participating this week, except for Viktor Hovland and Hideki Matsuyama. The stage is set for some intense golf action, and I can’t wait to share my insights with you.
Harbor Town is a short, 7,213 yard, par 71, Pete Dye-designed golf course with tight, tree-lined fairways. We can move away from our heavy driving distance weights and focus more on golfers who regularly hit fairways and are skilled with their wedges.
Like Augusta National last week, course history at Harbor Town will be an essential part of the handicap used for the golfers this week. These are the key metrics I used in my primary model.
Key statistics:
· Driving distance
· Strokes obtained: approach
· Proximity: 125-150
· SG: Par 4
· Birdie or better won
· SG: Wells
· Course history
RBC Heritage Best Bets
Ludvig Aberg wins +1200
Once every few years, a young, promising debutant comes into action on Sunday during the Masters. This year it was Ludvig Aberg. The young Swedish phenomenon is not just a flash in the pan. Aberg has consistently been one of the best golfers this season.
He ranks in the top fifteen in almost every major statistical category, and his composure is far greater than his age would suggest.
Like Scheffler’s, Aberg’s game fits on almost any golf course. He is great off the tee, great with his irons and consistently hits shots on the putting surface.
A compelling statistic I mentioned in the build-up that still resonates is that there are only two golfers in the field who have won at least 2+ on the field in more than 55% of the matches they have played this season: Aberg and Scheffler.
He may come into this week with a bit of a Masters hangover, but I think his game is designed to weather the storm and have a great chance to win.
Other outright bets: Cam Young +3300, Wyndham Clark +3300 0.5un
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Shane Lowry Top 20 (-105)
I played Shane Lowry Top 20 on a sportsbook that pays out the belts in full. You can certainly find better prices, but you risk losing money in the dead heat if he finishes in a tie.
I’ve already mentioned how important course history is to this event. Lowry’s history is quite strong in Harbor Town. He has three top-10 finishes, including two top-5 finishes in his last five trips here.
I have yet to reference a golfer’s status in my model in the article, but it should be known that Lowry is third in the model.
Over the final 24 laps, Lowry was first in the field from 125 to 150 yards. He ranks in the top 10 in driving accuracy, SG: APP, BoB Gained and SG: Par 4s.
Lowry is playing great golf right now, so playing him to finish in the top 20 is a no-brainer.
Other placement bets: Xander Schaffuele Top 10 (+100)
