Hurricane forecasters today have an array of high-tech tools to determine where storms will occur, from satellites and drones to computer models that process constantly changing atmospheric data into predictive algorithms.
But there are two old-fashioned early indicators of a dangerous storm that many hurricane experts are still watching — signals that are especially important for Florida.
They’re called the Hebert Boxes, two relatively small (geographically speaking) areas on the map: one in the Atlantic Ocean, roughly east of Puerto Rico, and the other in the Caribbean Sea between Central America and Cuba. If a hurricane passes through those 335 by 335 mile boxes, history shows that there is an extremely high chance it will hit the Florida coast somewhere.
The boxes are named after Paul Hebert, a pioneering meteorologist who first identified these problem zones in the late 1970s and died last month in Lakeland. Hebert, also one of the first specialists hired at the National Hurricane Center, was 91.
The New Orleans native and Florida State University alumnus had a stellar career in South Florida. He was deputy director of the NHC and was also a meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service in Miami. On his last day at the NHC, then-Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas declared July 6, 1998, to be Paul J. Hebert’s day and presented him with the keys to the city.
Hebert paved the way for many prognosticators, including former NHC director Max Mayfieldallowing them to learn the erratic ways of tropical cyclones.
Mayfield moved to Miami from Oklahoma as an intern and didn’t know much about hurricanes. Hebert took it upon himself to train him.
“He was a walking encyclopedia about hurricanes in the United States,” Mayfield said. “You didn’t have to ask him about it, he just told you.”
Mayfield called Hebert a “legend in the cyclone community” whose passion for historical research helped refine hurricane forecasting and tracking. His work yielded publications such as “The Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense United States Tropical Cyclones from 1851 to 2010.”
Hebert lived and breathed the weather, especially hurricanes, according to his friends and family.
“He moved there [Miami] in ’66 and I think he was very excited to be in South Florida, where hurricanes happen. But he would have told you, “I was a little disappointed because the first hurricane to really hit South Florida was Hurricane Andrew in 1992.” He always said, ‘I had to wait 26 years to see a real hurricane,'” says John Hebert, the second of five children of Paul Hebert and his wife Margaret.
His son remembers growing up with storm photos hanging on the wall at home. One showed Hurricane Gilbert, the most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. He also had a rain gauge at home, data he continued to send to the National Weather Service long after he retired.
“Even when he checked the rain gauge, he was excited to see how much rain we were getting,” John Hebert said.
The finding that would define his career came in the late 1970s when he delved into the history of storm tracks and discovered that almost every major hurricane to hit Florida had passed through two geographic areas he had marked on maps.
They would be known ever since as the Hebert Boxes, and nearly half a century later, many hurricane researchers and forecasters still cite them as references – and paths to worry about for Florida residents. Not every storm that hits Florida passes through, but the vast majority of major storms do. There are a few exceptions, including the very notable Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5 monster that tore through South Miami-Dade in 1992 and was at the time the costliest hurricane in US history.
The Hebert Boxes are seasonal. The first east of Puerto Rico is usually a good signal for storms between June and early September. The second box, centered over the Cayman Islands, signals storms between late September and late October.
“We worry a lot in August and September if someone goes through that box, and we have a certain comfort level if someone misses the box,” Paul Hebert told the Miami Herald in 2001.
Robert Molleda, the current meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service in Miami, said Hebert Boxes aren’t used as often because of current technology — but it’s a good rule of thumb for explaining to the public where a hurricane will make landfall.
Molleda credits Paul Hebert with giving him his start in the field after first hiring him when he was in college.
“He opened the door for me,” Molleda said.
In addition to chasing storms, Paul Hebert was a sports fan, from watching to participating. He was a proud Miami Marlins season ticket holder and attended the 1997 World Series, the first World Series championship for the Marlins. He took up bowling in a league with colleagues and was an avid golfer. Once he even won a Volkswagen Beetle in a hole-in-one competition.
