The first round of the NFL Draft could be historically tough on offense, according to expectations

There have never been more than 19 offensive players taken in the first round of the NFL Draft.

It usually balances between attack and defense. The team has to take that into account, as well as the talent on both sides of the ball. But this year’s draft is expected to be heavily offensive – to a historic degree.

BetMGM has set an estimate on the number of offensive players who will play in the first round, and the cutoff marks not only a new record, but a record by a wide margin.

There are longer odds for the under, but even 21 attacking players would beat the old record by a few tips. For those who enjoy offensive football, the first round of this year’s NFL Draft should be a fun one.

The best prospects this year are on offense

The shape of the NFL Draft starts, as always, with the quarterbacks.

Caleb Williams is a virtual lock to be #1. The odds on that at BetMGM are -10,000. There’s more mystery with the second and third picks, but the favorites are both quarterbacks: Jayden Daniels at No. 2 and Drake Maye at No. 3. JJ McCarthy will be off the board soon. Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. could also go in the first round.

That would be six quarterbacks in the first round. Then we get to the deep receiver and offensive line classes.

There are a lot of good offensive linemen in the draft, and a lot of teams have offensive line needs. The last mock draft from Yahoo Sports’ Charles McDonald and Nate Tice had 12 offensive linemen taken in the first round.

Then come the recipients. Marvin Harrison, Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze and Brian Thomas Jr. are practically first-round locks. Others, like Adonai Mitchell and Keon Coleman, could also be first-rounders.

If we get five quarterbacks, five receivers, 12 offensive linemen and one tight end (Brock Bowers, who goes in the first round), that’s 23 offensive players from 32 spots. Even if we subtract one or two offensive linemen, that’s easily enough to set the record.

Defensive players will wait

Part of why the first round skewed so heavily toward offense is that there aren’t many can’t-miss defensive prospects.

Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner (-125) is favored as the top defensive player, and is not guaranteed to be in the top 10. There are some good defensive players in the draft, but none come close to a Myles Garrett or Aidan Hutchinson.

Teams in need of a cornerback or pass rusher will likely get them in the second round and beyond. The first round will focus on the offensive side of the ball. That’s where the best talent is this season, enough that an NFL Draft record will very likely be broken.